{"id":16170,"date":"2025-03-02T05:05:18","date_gmt":"2025-03-01T20:05:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sanctionlab.com\/?p=16170"},"modified":"2025-03-10T04:35:37","modified_gmt":"2025-03-09T19:35:37","slug":"%ec%8b%ac%ec%b8%b5%eb%b6%84%ec%84%9d-%ea%b4%80%ec%84%b8%ea%b0%80-%eb%ac%b4%ec%97%ad-%ec%a0%81%ec%9e%90%eb%a5%bc-%ec%a4%84%ec%9d%b8%eb%8b%a4%ea%b3%a0-%ea%b4%80%ec%84%b8-%eb%86%92%ec%9c%bc%eb%a9%b4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sanctionlab.com\/?p=16170","title":{"rendered":"[\uc2ec\uce35\ubd84\uc11d] \uad00\uc138\uac00 \ubb34\uc5ed \uc801\uc790\ub97c \uc904\uc778\ub2e4\uace0? &#8220;\uad00\uc138 \ub192\uc73c\uba74 \uc801\uc790\ub3c4 \ucee4&#8221;"},"content":{"rendered":"<h6>\ud3b8\uc9d1\uc790\uc8fc: \ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \ubb34\uc5ed\uc801\uc790\ub294 \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 2.0 \ud589\uc815\ubd80 \uace0\uad00\uc138 \uc815\ucc45\uc758 \uc8fc\uc694 \uadfc\uac70\uac00 \ub418\uace0 \uc788\uc74c. \ub3c4\ub110\ub4dc \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \ubbf8\uad6d \ub300\ud1b5\ub839\uc740 \ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \ubb34\uc5ed \uc801\uc790\ub97c \uc904\uc774\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uad00\uc138\ub97c \uc62c\ub9ac\uaca0\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1c\ud45c\ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc, \ub9ce\uc740 \uacbd\uc81c\ud559\uc790\ub4e4\uc740 \uad00\uc138\uac00 \ubb34\uc5ed \uc218\uc9c0\uc5d0 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubbf8\uce58\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294\ub2e4\uace0 \uc624\ub7ab\ub3d9\uc548 \uc8fc\uc7a5\ud574 \uc654\uc74c. \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \ub17c\ub780\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \ud53c\ud130\uc2a8 \uad6d\uc81c\uacbd\uc81c\uc5f0\uad6c\uc18c\uc758 \uc870\uc149 \uac00\ub1fd(Joseph E. Gagnon) \uc5f0\uad6c\uc704\uc6d0\uc740 \uad00\uc138\uc728\uc774 \ub192\uc740 \uad6d\uac00\uc77c\uc218\ub85d \uc624\ud788\ub824 \ubb34\uc5ed \uc801\uc790\uac00 \ub354 \ud070 \uacbd\ud5a5\uc744 \ubcf4\uc774\ub294\ub370, \uc774\ub294 \uad00\uc138 \uc790\uccb4\uc758 \uc601\ud5a5\uc774 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c \uad6d\uac00\uc758 \uacbd\uc81c \ubc1c\uc804 \ub2e8\uacc4\uac00 \uad00\uc138\uc728\uacfc \ubb34\uc5ed \uc801\uc790 \ubaa8\ub450\uc5d0 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubbf8\uce58\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uc694\uc9c0\uc758 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.piie.com\/blogs\/realtime-economics\/2025\/why-higher-tariffs-wont-shrink-trade-deficit\">\uc5f0\uad6c \uacb0\uacfc<\/a>\ub97c \ubc1c\ud45c.<\/h6>\n<p>\ub3c4\ub110\ub4dc \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \uc804 \ubbf8\uad6d \ub300\ud1b5\ub839\uc740 \uc0c1\ud638 \uad00\uc138(Reciprocal Tariffs)\ub97c \ub3c4\uc785\ud558\ub294 \ud589\uc815\uba85\ub839\uc744 \ubc1c\ud45c\ud558\uba74\uc11c, \uadf8 \uc8fc\ub41c \ubaa9\uc801\uc774 \ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \ubb34\uc5ed \uc801\uc790\ub97c \uc904\uc774\ub294 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ubc1d\ud614\uc74c.\u00a0\uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \uacbd\uc81c\ud559\uc790\ub4e4\uc740 \uc624\ub7ab\ub3d9\uc548 \uad00\uc138\uac00 \ubb34\uc5ed \uc218\uc9c0(trade balance)\uc5d0 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubbf8\uce58\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294\ub2e4\uace0 \uc8fc\uc7a5\ud574 \uc654\uc74c.\u00a0\ub354 \ub098\uc544\uac00, \uc2e4\uc81c \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub294 \uad00\uc138\ub97c \ub192\uc774\uba74 \uc624\ud788\ub824 \ubb34\uc5ed \uc801\uc790\uac00 \uc99d\uac00\ud560 \uc218\ub3c4 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc74c.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\uad00\uc138\uc728\uc774 \ub192\uc740 \uad6d\uac00\uc77c\uc218\ub85d \ubb34\uc5ed \uc801\uc790\uac00 \ub354 \ud070 \uacbd\ud5a5\uc774 \uc788\uc74c<\/li>\n<li>\ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc \uc774\ub294 \uad00\uc138 \uc790\uccb4 \ub54c\ubb38\uc774 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c, \uad6d\uac00\uc758 \uacbd\uc81c \ubc1c\uc804 \ub2e8\uacc4\uac00 \uad00\uc138\uc728\uacfc \ubb34\uc5ed \uc801\uc790 \ubaa8\ub450\uc5d0 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubbf8\uce58\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc73c\ub85c \ud574\uc11d\ub420 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ub192\uc74c<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h5><strong>\ub192\uc740 \uad00\uc138\uc728\uacfc \ubb34\uc5ed \uc801\uc790\uc758 \uad00\uacc4<\/strong><\/h5>\n<p>\ub192\uc740 \uad00\uc138\ub97c \ubd80\uacfc\ud558\ub294 \uad6d\uac00 \ub300\ubd80\ubd84\uc740 \uac1c\ubc1c\ub3c4\uc0c1\uad6d(developing economies)\uc784.\u00a0\uc774 \uad6d\uac00\ub4e4\uc740 \ubbf8\uad6d\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uacbd\uc81c \uc218\uc900\uc774 \ub0ae\uace0, \uad6d\ub0b4 \uc138\uae08\uc744 \ubd80\uacfc\ud558\ub294 \uac83\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ud56d\uad6c\uc5d0\uc11c \uc218\uc785\ud488\uc5d0 \uc138\uae08\uc744 \ubd80\uacfc\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \ud589\uc815\uc801\uc73c\ub85c\ub098 \uc815\uce58\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ub354 \uc6a9\uc774\ud558\ub2e4\uace0 \ud310\ub2e8\ud558\ub294 \uacbd\uc6b0\uac00 \ub9ce\uc74c.<\/p>\n<p>\ub610\ud55c \uc790\ubcf8\uc774 \ubd80\uc871\ud55c \uac1c\ubc1c\ub3c4\uc0c1\uad6d\uc740 \uacbd\uc81c \ubc1c\uc804\uc744 \uc704\ud574 \ud574\uc678\uc5d0\uc11c \uc790\uae08\uc744 \ucc28\uc785\ud558\ub294 \uacbd\ud5a5\uc774 \uc788\uc5b4, \uc774\ub294 \ud544\uc5f0\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ubb34\uc5ed \uc801\uc790\ub97c \ucd08\ub798\ud568.<\/p>\n<h5><strong>\uad00\uc138\uc728\uacfc \ubb34\uc5ed \uc801\uc790\uc758 \ud1b5\uacc4\uc801 \ubd84\uc11d<\/strong><\/h5>\n<p>\ud53c\ud130\uc2a8 \uad6d\uc81c\uacbd\uc81c\uc5f0\uad6c\uc18c\uc5d0\uc11c 137\uac1c\uad6d\uc758 \ud3c9\uade0 \uad00\uc138\uc728\uacfc \ubb34\uc5ed \uc218\uc9c0\ub97c \ube44\uad50\ud55c \uacb0\uacfc, \uad00\uc138\uc728\uc774 \ub192\uc740 \uad6d\uac00\uc77c\uc218\ub85d \ubb34\uc5ed \uc801\uc790\uac00 \ud070 \uacbd\ud5a5\uc774 \uc788\uc5c8\uc74c.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\ud574\ub2f9 \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub294 2003\ub144\ubd80\ud130 2022\ub144\uae4c\uc9c0 20\ub144 \ub3d9\uc548\uc758 \ud3c9\uade0\uac12\uc744 \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud588\uc74c<\/li>\n<li>\ubbf8\uad6d\uc740 \ud3c9\uade0 3%\uc758 \uad00\uc138\uc728\uc744 \uae30\ub85d\ud588\uc74c<\/li>\n<li>\ud3c9\uade0 \uad00\uc138\uc728\uacfc \ubb34\uc5ed\uc218\uc9c0\uc758 \uc0c1\uad00 \uad00\uacc4\ub97c \ubd84\uc11d\ud55c \uacb0\uacfc \ucd94\uc138\uc120\uc758 \uae30\uc6b8\uae30\ub294 -0.45\uc774\uba70, 1% \uc218\uc900\uc5d0\uc11c \ud1b5\uacc4\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc720\uc758\ubbf8\ud588\uc74c<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\uc774\ub294 <strong>\uad00\uc138\uc728\uc774 1%\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8 \uc99d\uac00\ud560 \ub54c\ub9c8\ub2e4 \ubb34\uc5ed \uc218\uc9c0\uac00 GDP \ub300\ube44 0.45% \uac10\uc18c<\/strong>\ud55c\ub2e4\ub294 \uc758\ubbf8\uc784.<br \/>\n\uc989, <strong>\ub192\uc740 \uad00\uc138\uc728\uc740 \ubb34\uc5ed \uc801\uc790\uc758 \uc99d\uac00\uc640 \uc5f0\uad00<\/strong>\uc774 \uc788\uc74c.<\/p>\n<h5><strong>\ub192\uc740 \uad00\uc138\uac00 \ubb34\uc5ed \uc801\uc790\ub97c \uc904\uc774\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud558\ub294 \uc774\uc720<\/strong><\/h5>\n<p>\uc77c\ubd80 \uad6d\uac00\ub294 \uad00\uc138\uc728\uc744 30%\uae4c\uc9c0 \ub192\uc600\uc74c\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ubd88\uad6c\ud558\uace0 \ubbf8\uad6d\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ud6e8\uc52c \ub354 \ud070 \ubb34\uc5ed \uc801\uc790\ub97c \uae30\ub85d\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc74c.<\/p>\n<p>\uadf8 \uc774\uc720\ub294 \ub2e4\uc74c\uacfc \uac19\uc74c:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><strong>\uad00\uc138\ub294 \uc218\uc785\uc744 \uc904\uc774\uc9c0\ub9cc, \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \uc678\uad6d\uc73c\ub85c \uc720\uc785\ub418\ub294 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uacf5\uae09\ub3c4 \uc904\uc784.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<ul>\n<li>\uc218\uc785\uc774 \uac10\uc18c\ud558\uba74 \ud574\uc678 \uae30\uc5c5\ub4e4\uc740 \ubbf8\uad6d\uc73c\ub85c\ubd80\ud130 \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \ub35c \ubc1b\uac8c \ub428<\/li>\n<li>\ub2ec\ub7ec \uacf5\uae09\uc774 \uac10\uc18c\ud558\uba74 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uac00\uce58\ub294 \uc0c1\uc2b9<\/li>\n<li>\ub2ec\ub7ec \uac00\uce58 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc740 \ubbf8\uad6d \uc81c\ud488\uc758 \uac00\uaca9\uc744 \ub192\uc5ec \ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \uc218\ucd9c\uc744 \uc904\uc774\ub294 \uacb0\uacfc\ub97c \ucd08\ub798<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>2. <strong>\uacb0\uad6d, \uc218\uc785\uc774 \uc904\uc5b4\ub4dc\ub294 \ub9cc\ud07c \uc218\ucd9c\ub3c4 \uc904\uc5b4\ub4e4\uc5b4 \ubb34\uc5ed \uc801\uc790\uc5d0\ub294 \ubcc0\ud654\uac00 \uc5c6\uc74c.<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\ub2e8\uc21c\ud788 \uad00\uc138\ub85c \uc778\ud574 \uc218\uc785\ub9cc \uac10\uc18c\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c \uc218\ucd9c\ub3c4 \ub3d9\ubc18 \uac10\uc18c<\/li>\n<li>\ub530\ub77c\uc11c \ubb34\uc5ed \uc801\uc790\ub294 \uadf8\ub300\ub85c \uc720\uc9c0\ub418\ub294 \uacbd\uc6b0\uac00 \ub9ce\uc74c.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h5><strong>\uad00\uc138\uc758 \uc7a5\uae30\uc801\uc778 \uacbd\uc81c\uc801 \uc601\ud5a5<\/strong><\/h5>\n<p>\ube44\ub85d \uad00\uc138\uac00 \ubb34\uc5ed \uc801\uc790\ub97c \uc904\uc774\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud558\ub354\ub77c\ub3c4 \uacbd\uc81c \uc804\ubc18\uc5d0\ub294 \ub2e4\uc591\ud55c \ubd80\uc815\uc801\uc778 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubbf8\uce60 \uc218 \uc788\uc74c.<\/p>\n<p>1.<strong>\ucd1d \ubb34\uc5ed\ub7c9 \uac10\uc18c<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\uad00\uc138\ub294 \uc218\uc785\uacfc \uc218\ucd9c\uc744 \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \uc904\uc774\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0 \ucd1d \uad50\uc5ed\ub7c9(trade volume)\uc774 \uac10\uc18c<\/li>\n<li>\uc774\ub294 \uacb0\uad6d \uad6d\uac00 \uc804\uccb4\uc758 \uacbd\uc81c \uc131\uc7a5 \ub454\ud654\ub85c \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c8 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ub192\uc74c.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>2. <strong>\ube44\ud6a8\uc728\uc801\uc778 \uc790\uc6d0 \ubc30\ubd84<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\uad00\uc138\ub294 \ub354 \uc218\uc775\uc131\uc774 \ub192\uc740 \uc218\ucd9c \uc0b0\uc5c5\uc5d0\uc11c \uc0c1\ub300\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ub35c \uc218\uc775\uc131\uc774 \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc785 \ub300\uccb4 \uc0b0\uc5c5\uc73c\ub85c \uacbd\uc81c \uc790\uc6d0\uc744 \uc774\ub3d9\uc2dc\ud0a4\ub294 \ud6a8\uacfc\ub97c \uac00\uc9d0.<\/li>\n<li>\uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4 \ubbf8\uad6d\uc774 \ud2b9\uc815 \uc0b0\uc5c5\uc758 \uc218\uc785\ud488\uc5d0 \ub192\uc740 \uad00\uc138\ub97c \ubd80\uacfc\ud558\uba74 \uae30\uc5c5\ub4e4\uc774 \uae30\uc874\uc758 \uacbd\uc7c1\ub825 \uc788\ub294 \uc218\ucd9c \uc0b0\uc5c5\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc218\uc785 \ub300\uccb4 \uc0b0\uc5c5\uc5d0 \ub354 \ub9ce\uc740 \ud22c\uc790\ub97c \ud558\uac8c \ub428.<\/li>\n<li>\ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc \uc774\ub294 \uc7a5\uae30\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ube44\ud6a8\uc728\uc801\uc778 \uc790\uc6d0 \ubc30\ubd84\uc744 \ucd08\ub798\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc74c.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>3. <strong>\uae30\uc5c5 \uacbd\uc7c1\ub825 \uc57d\ud654<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\uad00\uc138\ub294 \uc678\uad6d \uacbd\uc7c1\uc790\ub4e4\ub85c\ubd80\ud130 \uad6d\ub0b4 \uae30\uc5c5\uc744 \ubcf4\ud638\ud558\ub294 \uc5ed\ud560\uc744 \ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc7a5\uae30\uc801\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 \uacbd\uc7c1 \uc555\ub825\uc744 \uc904\uc5ec \uae30\uc5c5 \ud601\uc2e0\uacfc \uc0dd\uc0b0\uc131 \ud5a5\uc0c1\uc744 \uc800\ud574<\/li>\n<li>\uacb0\uad6d, \uae30\uc5c5\ub4e4\uc774 \uae30\uc220 \ud601\uc2e0\uc744 \ub4f1\ud55c\uc2dc\ud558\uace0 \uad6d\uac00 \uacbd\uc81c\uc758 \uc131\uc7a5 \uc18d\ub3c4\uac00 \ub454\ud654\ub420 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud07c.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>4. <strong>\uc18c\ube44\uc790 \uc0dd\ud65c \uc218\uc900 \uc800\ud558<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\uad00\uc138\uac00 \ubd80\uacfc\ub418\uba74 \uc18c\ube44\uc790\ub4e4\uc740 \ub354 \ube44\uc2fc \uc81c\ud488\uc744 \uad6c\ub9e4\ud574\uc57c \ud558\ubbc0\ub85c \uc2e4\uc9c8\uc801\uc778 \uc0dd\ud65c \uc218\uc900\uc774 \ub0ae\uc544\uc9d0.<\/li>\n<li>\uc774\ub294 \uc7a5\uae30\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uac00\uacc4 \uacbd\uc81c\uc5d0 \ubd80\ub2f4\uc744 \uc8fc\uace0 \uc18c\ube44 \uac10\uc18c\ub85c \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c8 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \uc788\uc74c.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h5><strong>\uacb0\ub860: \ub192\uc740 \uad00\uc138\ub294 \ubb34\uc5ed \uc801\uc790\ub97c \uc904\uc774\ub294 \ud6a8\uacfc\uac00 \uc5c6\uc74c<\/strong><\/h5>\n<p>\uad00\uc138\ub294 \uc218\uc785\uacfc \uc218\ucd9c\uc744 \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \uc904\uc774\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0 \ubb34\uc5ed \uc801\uc790 \uc790\uccb4\ub97c \uc904\uc774\ub294 \ud6a8\uacfc\ub294 \uc5c6\uc74c.\u00a0\uc624\ud788\ub824 \uad00\uc138\uc728\uc774 \ub192\uc740 \uad6d\uac00\ub4e4\uc740 \ubb34\uc5ed \uc801\uc790\uac00 \ub354 \ud070 \uacbd\ud5a5\uc744 \ubcf4\uc784. \uc774\ub294 \uad00\uc138 \uc790\uccb4\uc758 \uc601\ud5a5\ubcf4\ub2e4\ub294 \uad6d\uac00\uc758 \uacbd\uc81c \ubc1c\uc804 \uc218\uc900\uacfc \uad00\ub828\uc774 \uc788\uc74c.<\/p>\n<p>\uc7a5\uae30\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ub192\uc740 \uad00\uc138\ub294 \uacbd\uc81c \uc804\ubc18\uc5d0 \ubd80\uc815\uc801\uc778 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubbf8\uccd0 \uae30\uc5c5 \uacbd\uc7c1\ub825 \uc57d\ud654, \uc0dd\uc0b0\uc131 \ub454\ud654, \uc18c\ube44\uc790 \uc0dd\ud65c \uc218\uc900 \uc800\ud558 \ub4f1\uc758 \ubb38\uc81c\ub97c \ucd08\ub798\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud07c.\u00a0\ub530\ub77c\uc11c, \ubb34\uc5ed \uc801\uc790\ub97c \uc904\uc774\uae30 \uc704\ud574\uc11c\ub294 \ub2e8\uc21c\ud788 \uad00\uc138\ub97c \ub192\uc774\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c, \uadfc\ubcf8\uc801\uc778 \uacbd\uc81c \uc815\ucc45\uc744 \uc7ac\uac80\ud1a0\ud574\uc57c \ud560 \uac83\uc784.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\ud3b8\uc9d1\uc790\uc8fc: \ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \ubb34\uc5ed\uc801\uc790\ub294 \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 2.0 \ud589\uc815\ubd80 \uace0\uad00\uc138 \uc815\ucc45\uc758 \uc8fc\uc694 \uadfc\uac70\uac00 \ub418\uace0 \uc788\uc74c. \ub3c4\ub110\ub4dc \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \ubbf8\uad6d \ub300\ud1b5\ub839\uc740 \ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \ubb34\uc5ed \uc801\uc790\ub97c \uc904\uc774\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uad00\uc138\ub97c \uc62c\ub9ac\uaca0\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1c\ud45c\ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc, \ub9ce\uc740 \uacbd\uc81c\ud559\uc790\ub4e4\uc740 \uad00\uc138\uac00 \ubb34\uc5ed \uc218\uc9c0\uc5d0 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubbf8\uce58\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294\ub2e4\uace0 \uc624\ub7ab\ub3d9\uc548 \uc8fc\uc7a5\ud574 \uc654\uc74c. \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \ub17c\ub780\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \ud53c\ud130\uc2a8 \uad6d\uc81c\uacbd\uc81c\uc5f0\uad6c\uc18c\uc758 \uc870\uc149 \uac00\ub1fd(Joseph E. 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