{"id":16242,"date":"2025-03-05T06:12:55","date_gmt":"2025-03-04T21:12:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sanctionlab.com\/?p=16242"},"modified":"2025-03-12T08:45:50","modified_gmt":"2025-03-11T23:45:50","slug":"%ec%8b%ac%ec%b8%b5%eb%b6%84%ec%84%9d-%ed%94%bc%ed%84%b0%ec%8a%a8-%ec%97%b0%ea%b5%ac%ec%86%8c-%ed%8a%b8%eb%9f%bc%ed%94%84-%eb%8c%80%ec%a4%91-%ec%95%95%eb%b0%95%ec%9c%bc%eb%a1%9c-%ec%9d%b8%eb%8f%84","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sanctionlab.com\/?p=16242","title":{"rendered":"[\uc2ec\uce35\ubd84\uc11d] \ud53c\ud130\uc2a8 \uc5f0\uad6c\uc18c “\ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \ub300\uc911 \uc555\ubc15\uc73c\ub85c \uc778\ub3c4\u00b7\ube0c\ub77c\uc9c8\uc774 \uc218\ud61c”"},"content":{"rendered":"
\ud3b8\uc9d1\uc790\uc8fc: \ub2e4\uc74c\uc740 \uc9c0\ub09c\ub2ec 3\uc77c(\ud604\uc9c0\uc2dc\uac01) \uac1c\ucd5c\ub41c UC \uc0cc\ub514\uc5d0\uc774\uace0 \uacbd\uc81c \ub77c\uc6b4\ub4dc\ud14c\uc774\ube14(UC San Diego Economics Roundtable)<\/a>\uc5d0\uc11c \ud53c\ud130\uc2a8 \uad6d\uc81c\uacbd\uc81c\uc5f0\uad6c\uc18c \ud68c\uc7a5 \uc560\ub364 \ud3ec\uc13c(Adam Posen)\uc774 \ubc1c\uc81c\ud55c \ub0b4\uc6a9\uc744 \uc694\uc57d \uc815\ub9ac\ud55c \uac83\uc784.<\/h6>\n

\n\uc911\uad6d \uacbd\uc81c: \uae30\uc801\uc758 \ub05d\uc774 \ub354 \ud070 \ubb38\uc81c\uc758 \uc2dc\uc791\uc778\uac00?<\/strong><\/h5>\n

1. \uc911\uad6d \uacbd\uc81c \ub454\ud654\uc758 \ubc30\uacbd\uacfc \uc6d0\uc778<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u2022 \uc9c0\ub09c \uc218\uc2ed \ub144\uac04 \uc911\uad6d\uc740 \uace0\ub3c4 \uc131\uc7a5(GDP \uc5f0\ud3c9\uade0 8% \uc774\uc0c1 \uc131\uc7a5)\uc744 \uc9c0\uc18d\ud588\uc73c\ub098, \ucd5c\uadfc \uba87 \ub144 \ub3d9\uc548 \uc131\uc7a5\uc138\uac00 \ub454\ud654\ub418\uace0 \uc788\uc74c.<\/p>\n

\u2022 \uc8fc\ub41c \uc6d0\uc778:
\n– \uc911\uad6d \uacf5\uc0b0\ub2f9(CCP)\uc758 \uacbd\uc81c \uac1c\uc785 \uc99d\uac00
\n– \uad6d\ub0b4 \uc18c\ube44 \ub454\ud654 \ubc0f \ud22c\uc790 \uac10\uc18c
\n– \ubd80\ub3d9\uc0b0 \ubc0f \uae08\uc735 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubd88\uc548\uc815\uc131
\n– \uc11c\ubc29 \uad6d\uac00\ub4e4\uc758 \ub300\uc911\uad6d \uacac\uc81c \uac15\ud654(\ubb34\uc5ed \uc81c\uc7ac, \uae30\uc220 \uc81c\ud55c \ub4f1)<\/p>\n

2. \uc911\uad6d \uacbd\uc81c \ub454\ud654\uc758 \uad6d\uc81c\uc801 \uc601\ud5a5<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u2022 \uc911\uad6d\uc740 \uc138\uacc4 \uacbd\uc81c\uc5d0\uc11c \uc911\uc694\ud55c \uc5ed\ud560\uc744 \ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub294\ub370, \uc911\uad6d \uacbd\uc81c \ub454\ud654\ub294 \ub2e4\uc74c\uacfc \uac19\uc740 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubbf8\uce60 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud07c
\n– \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uacf5\uae09\ub9dd \ubcc0\ud654 \u2192 \uc11c\ubc29 \uae30\uc5c5\ub4e4\uc774 \uc911\uad6d \uc774\uc678 \uc9c0\uc5ed\uc5d0\uc11c \uc0dd\uc0b0 \ub124\ud2b8\uc6cc\ud06c\ub97c \uc7ac\uad6c\uc131\ud558\ub824\ub294 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc784 \uac15\ud654
\n– \ubbf8\uad6d\uacfc EU\uc758 \uc911\uad6d \uc758\uc874\ub3c4 \uac10\uc18c \u2192 \ubbf8\uad6d \ubc0f EU\uc758 \ud2b9\uc815 \uc0b0\uc5c5(\ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4, \ubc30\ud130\ub9ac, \uc6d0\uc790\uc7ac \ub4f1)\uc5d0\uc11c \uc911\uad6d\uacfc\uc758 \ubd84\ub9ac \uc804\ub7b5 \uac00\uc18d\ud654
\n– \ub3d9\ub0a8\uc544 \ubc0f \uc778\ub3c4 \ub4f1 \uc2e0\ud765\uad6d\uc5d0 \uae30\ud68c \uc81c\uacf5 \u2192 \uc911\uad6d\uc758 \uacbd\uc81c \ub454\ud654\ub85c \uc778\ud574 \ub3d9\ub0a8\uc544, \uc778\ub3c4 \ub4f1 \ub2e4\ub978 \uac1c\ubc1c\ub3c4\uc0c1\uad6d\uc774 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c \uacbd\uc7c1\ub825\uc744 \uac16\ucd9c \uac00\ub2a5\uc131 \uc99d\uac00<\/p>\n

\ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \ud589\uc815\ubd80 2.0\uacfc \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \ubc18\uc751<\/strong><\/h5>\n

1.\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uc8fc\uc694 \ubcc0\ud654 \ud14c\ub9c8<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u2022 \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \ud589\uc815\ubd80 2.0\uc774 \ucd9c\ubc94\ud558\uba74\uc11c \uc804 \uc138\uacc4 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uacfc \uc815\ubd80\ub4e4\uc758 \ub300\uc751 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc774 \uc911\uc694\ud574\uc9d0<\/p>\n

\u2022 \uc8fc\uc694 \ubcc0\ud654 \ud14c\ub9c8\ub294 \ub2e4\uc74c\uacfc \uac19\uc74c
\n– AI(\uc778\uacf5\uc9c0\ub2a5) \uc911\uc2ec \uc815\ucc45 \uac15\ud654, \uce5c\ud658\uacbd \uc815\ucc45 \ud6c4\ud1f4
\n– \uae08\uc735 \uaddc\uc81c \ubc0f \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \ud611\ub825 \uc57d\ud654
\n– EU\uc5d0\uc11c \ubbf8\uad6d\uc73c\ub85c\uc758 \uc911\uacf5\uc5c5 \uc774\ub3d9 \uac00\uc18d\ud654<\/p>\n

2. \uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uc801 \ucc28\uc774\uc5d0 \ub530\ub978 \uc790\ubcf8 \ud750\ub984 \ubcc0\ud654<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u2022 \ub3d9\ub0a8\uc544\uc2dc\uc544 vs. \uc720\ub7fd(EU)
\n– \ubbf8\uad6d\uc774 \ub3d9\ub0a8\uc544\uc2dc\uc544\uc640\uc758 \uacbd\uc81c \uad00\uacc4\ub97c \uac15\ud654\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ub192\uc74c
\n– EU\ub294 \ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \ubcf4\ud638\uc8fc\uc758\uc801 \uc815\ucc45\uc73c\ub85c \uc778\ud574 \uacbd\uc81c\uc801 \ubd80\ub2f4 \uc99d\uac00 \uc608\uc0c1<\/p>\n

\u2022 BRICS (\uc911\uad6d \ubc0f \ub7ec\uc2dc\uc544 \uc81c\uc678) vs. \uae30\ud0c0 \uc2e0\ud765\uad6d
\n– \ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \ub300\uc911\uad6d \uacac\uc81c\uac00 \uac15\ud654\ub418\uba74\uc11c \uc778\ub3c4 \ubc0f \ube0c\ub77c\uc9c8 \uac19\uc740 \uad6d\uac00\ub4e4\uc774 \uacbd\uc81c\uc801 \uc774\ub4dd\uc744 \ubcfc \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \uc788\uc74c<\/p>\n

\ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \ud589\uc815\ubd80\uc758 \uc815\ucc45 \uc6b0\uc120\uc21c\uc704<\/strong><\/h5>\n

\ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \ud589\uc815\ubd80 2.0\uc774 \ucd9c\ubc94\ud558\uba74\uc11c \ub2e4\uc74c\uacfc \uac19\uc740 \uc815\ucc45\uc774 \uc6b0\uc120\uc21c\uc704\ub85c \ubd80\uc0c1\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ub192\uc74c<\/p>\n

1. \uad00\uc138 \uc778\uc0c1 (Tariffs)
\n2. \uaddc\uc81c \uc644\ud654 (Deregulation)
\n3. \uc774\ubbfc \uc815\ucc45 \uac15\ud654 (Migration Policy)
\n4. \uc138\uae08 \uac10\uba74 \ubc0f \uc608\uc0b0 \uc815\ucc45 (Taxes & Budget Policy)
\n5. \uc911\uad6d \ubc0f \ub7ec\uc2dc\uc544 \uc81c\uc7ac (Sanctions on China & Russia)<\/p>\n

\ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \ud589\uc815\ubd80\ub294 \uad00\uc138\ub97c \ud65c\uc6a9\ud558\uc5ec \uacbd\uc81c \uc7ac\ud3b8\uc744 \uc2dc\ub3c4\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud07c. \ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc \uad00\uc138 \uc815\ucc45\uc774 \uac00\uc9c0\ub294 \ub51c\ub808\ub9c8\uac00 \uc874\uc7ac\ud568.<\/p>\n

\uad00\uc138 \uc815\ucc45\uacfc \uacbd\uc81c\uc801 \ub51c\ub808\ub9c8<\/strong><\/h5>\n

1. \uc138\uc218 \ud655\ubcf4 vs. \ud611\uc0c1 \ub3c4\uad6c<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u2022 \ubaa8\ub4e0 \uad6d\uac00 \ubc0f \ubaa8\ub4e0 \uc0b0\uc5c5\uc5d0 \uc77c\uad04 \uc801\uc6a9\ud560 \uacbd\uc6b0
\n– \uc5f0\uac04 GDP\uc758 1~2% \uc218\uc900\uc758 \uc138\uc218 \ud655\ubcf4 \uac00\ub2a5
\n– \ub2e4\ub9cc, \uacbd\uc81c \uc804\uccb4\uc5d0 \ubbf8\uce58\ub294 \uc601\ud5a5\uc774 \ud06c\uace0 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \ubb34\uc5ed \uc9c8\uc11c\uac00 \ud06c\uac8c \ubcc0\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \uc788\uc74c<\/p>\n

\u2022 \ud2b9\uc815 \uad6d\uac00(\uc911\uad6d, \uba55\uc2dc\ucf54) \ubc0f \ud2b9\uc815 \uc0b0\uc5c5\uc5d0\ub9cc \uc801\uc6a9\ud560 \uacbd\uc6b0
\n– \uc138\uc218 \ud6a8\uacfc\uac00 0.2% \uc218\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \ub0ae\uc544\uc9d0
\n– \ud611\uc0c1 \ub3c4\uad6c\ub85c \ud65c\uc6a9 \uac00\ub2a5\ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uacbd\uc81c \uc804\uccb4\uc5d0 \ubbf8\uce58\ub294 \uc601\ud5a5\uc740 \uc81c\ud55c\uc801\uc784<\/p>\n

2. \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc704\ud5d8<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u2022 \uace0\uc728\uc758 \uad00\uc138 \ubd80\uacfc \uc2dc:
\n– \uc218\uc785\ud488 \uac00\uaca9 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \u2192 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc555\ub825 \uc99d\uac00
\n– \ub192\uc740 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc740 \uc18c\ube44 \uc704\ucd95 \ubc0f \uacbd\uae30 \uce68\uccb4\ub85c \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c8 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \uc788\uc74c<\/p>\n

3. \ub2ec\ub7ec \uac00\uce58 \uc0c1\uc2b9 vs. \ubb34\uc5ed \uc801\uc790<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u2022 \uad00\uc138\uac00 \ub192\uc544\uc9c8\uc218\ub85d \ub2ec\ub7ec \uac00\uce58 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \u2192 \uc218\ucd9c \uacbd\uc7c1\ub825 \uc57d\ud654 \u2192 \ubb34\uc5ed \uc801\uc790 \ud655\ub300
\n\u2022 \uc774\ub97c \ubc29\uc9c0\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uc815\ubd80\uac00 \uc778\uc704\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc57d\uc138\ub97c \uc720\ub3c4\ud558\uba74 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc704\ud5d8 \uc99d\uac00<\/p>\n

\uc774\ubbfc \uc815\ucc45 \ubcc0\ud654\uac00 \uacbd\uc81c\uc5d0 \ubbf8\uce58\ub294 \uc601\ud5a5<\/strong><\/h5>\n

1. \ubd88\ubc95 \uc774\ubbfc\uc790 \ucd94\ubc29\uc758 \uacbd\uc81c\uc801 \uc601\ud5a5<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u2022 \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \ud589\uc815\ubd80\ub294 \ub300\uaddc\ubaa8 \ubd88\ubc95 \uc774\ubbfc\uc790 \ucd94\ubc29\uc744 \uace0\ub824 \uc911
\n\u2022 \uc774\ub294 \ub178\ub3d9\ub825 \ubd80\uc871\uc744 \ucd08\ub798\ud558\uace0, \uc784\uae08 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \ubc0f \uc2a4\ud0dc\uadf8\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc744 \uc720\ubc1c\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \uc788\uc74c
\n\u2022 \ubd80\ub3d9\uc0b0 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubbf8\uccd0 \uc8fc\ud0dd \uac00\uaca9 \uae09\ub4f1 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \uc788\uc74c<\/p>\n

\uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4(Fed)\uc758 \uc815\ucc45 \ub300\uc751<\/strong><\/h5>\n

\u2022 \uc5f0\uc900(Fed)\uc740 \uad00\uc138 \ubc0f \uc138\uae08 \ubcc0\ud654\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ub300\uc751\uc774 \ub2a6\uc5b4\uc9c8 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud07c
\n\u2022 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \uc2dc\uc810\uc774 \uc9c0\uc5f0\ub418\uba74\uc11c \uae08\uc735 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \ud655\ub300\ub420 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \uc788\uc74c<\/p>\n

2025\ub144 \ubbf8\uad6d \uacbd\uc81c \uc804\ub9dd\uacfc \uc8fc\uc694 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c<\/strong><\/h5>\n

1. \ubd80\uc815\uc801 \uc694\uc778 (Downside Risks)<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u2022 \uc774\ubbfc \uc815\ucc45 \uac15\ud654\ub85c \uc778\ud55c \ub178\ub3d9\ub825 \ubd80\uc871 \ubc0f \uc2a4\ud0dc\uadf8\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158
\n\u2022 \uad00\uc138 \ubc0f \uc138\uae08 \uc815\ucc45 \ubcc0\ud654\ub85c \uc778\ud55c \uc18c\ube44 \uc8fc\ub3c4 \uacbd\uae30 \uce68\uccb4
\n\u2022 \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \uc815\ucc45 \ub300\uc751 \uc9c0\uc5f0\uc73c\ub85c \uae08\uc735\uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubd88\uc548\uc815\uc131 \uc99d\uac00<\/p>\n

2. \uae0d\uc815\uc801 \uc694\uc778 (Upside Potential)<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u2022 AI(\uc778\uacf5\uc9c0\ub2a5) \ubc1c\uc804\uc774 \uc9c0\uc18d\ub418\uba74\uc11c \uc0dd\uc0b0\uc131 \uc99d\uac00 \u2192 \uacbd\uc81c \uc131\uc7a5 \ucd09\uc9c4 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131<\/p>\n

\uc911\uad6d \uacbd\uc81c\uc758 \ubcc0\ud654\uc640 \ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \ub300\uc751 \uc804\ub7b5<\/strong><\/h5>\n

\u2022 \uc911\uad6d \uc815\ubd80\uc758 \uac1c\uc785 \uc99d\uac00 \u2192 \uc18c\ube44 \ubc0f \ud22c\uc790 \uac10\uc18c, \uc800\ucd95 \uc99d\uac00
\n\u2022 \ubbf8\uad6d\uc740 \uae30\uc874\uc758 \uc81c\uc7ac(sanction)\uc5d0\uc11c \uc790\ubcf8 \ubc0f \uc778\uc7ac \uc720\uc785(suction) \uc804\ub7b5\uc73c\ub85c \uc804\ud658 \uac00\ub2a5<\/p>\n

\uacb0\ub860: \ubbf8\uad6d\uacfc \uc911\uad6d\uc758 \ubbf8\ub798 \uad00\uacc4<\/strong><\/h5>\n

\u2022 \ubbf8\uad6d\uc740 \uc911\uad6d\uc758 \uacbd\uc81c\uc801 \uc704\ucd95\uc744 \uae30\ud68c\ub85c \ud65c\uc6a9\ud560 \uac83\uc778\uc9c0, \uc704\ud5d8 \uc694\uc18c\ub85c \uc778\uc2dd\ud560 \uac83\uc778\uc9c0 \ud310\ub2e8\ud574\uc57c \ud568
\n\u2022 \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \ud589\uc815\ubd80\uc758 \uc815\ucc45 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc740 \uc544\uc9c1 \uba85\ud655\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc73c\ub098, \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uba87 \ub144\uac04 \ubbf8\uad6d\uacfc \uc911\uad6d\uc758 \uacbd\uc81c \uad00\uacc4\uac00 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uacbd\uc81c\uc5d0 \uc911\ub300\ud55c \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubbf8\uce60 \uac83<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\ud3b8\uc9d1\uc790\uc8fc: \ub2e4\uc74c\uc740 \uc9c0\ub09c\ub2ec 3\uc77c(\ud604\uc9c0\uc2dc\uac01) \uac1c\ucd5c\ub41c UC \uc0cc\ub514\uc5d0\uc774\uace0 \uacbd\uc81c \ub77c\uc6b4\ub4dc\ud14c\uc774\ube14(UC San Diego Economics Roundtable)\uc5d0\uc11c \ud53c\ud130\uc2a8 \uad6d\uc81c\uacbd\uc81c\uc5f0\uad6c\uc18c \ud68c\uc7a5 \uc560\ub364 \ud3ec\uc13c(Adam Posen)\uc774 \ubc1c\uc81c\ud55c \ub0b4\uc6a9\uc744 \uc694\uc57d \uc815\ub9ac\ud55c \uac83\uc784. \uc911\uad6d \uacbd\uc81c: \uae30\uc801\uc758 \ub05d\uc774 \ub354 \ud070 \ubb38\uc81c\uc758 \uc2dc\uc791\uc778\uac00? 1. \uc911\uad6d \uacbd\uc81c \ub454\ud654\uc758 \ubc30\uacbd\uacfc \uc6d0\uc778 \u2022 \uc9c0\ub09c \uc218\uc2ed \ub144\uac04 \uc911\uad6d\uc740 \uace0\ub3c4 \uc131\uc7a5(GDP \uc5f0\ud3c9\uade0 8% \uc774\uc0c1 \uc131\uc7a5)\uc744 \uc9c0\uc18d\ud588\uc73c\ub098, \ucd5c\uadfc \uba87 \ub144 \ub3d9\uc548 \uc131\uc7a5\uc138\uac00 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