{"id":16790,"date":"2025-03-08T05:19:32","date_gmt":"2025-03-07T20:19:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sanctionlab.com\/?p=16790"},"modified":"2025-04-09T17:32:17","modified_gmt":"2025-04-09T08:32:17","slug":"%ec%8b%ac%ec%b8%b5%eb%b6%84%ec%84%9d-%ec%9c%a0%ea%b0%80-%ec%95%88%ec%a0%95%ec%9d%84-%ec%9c%84%ed%95%9c-%ed%8a%b8%eb%9f%bc%ed%94%84%ec%9d%98-%ec%a0%84%eb%9e%b5%ec%9d%80","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sanctionlab.com\/?p=16790","title":{"rendered":"[\uc2ec\uce35\ubd84\uc11d] \uc720\uac00 \uc548\uc815\uc744 \uc704\ud55c \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504\uc758 \uc804\ub7b5\uc740?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\ud3b8\uc9d1\uc790\uc8fc: \ub2e4\uc74c\uc740 \ubbf8\uad6d \uc804\ub7b5\uad6d\uc81c\ubb38\uc81c \uc5f0\uad6c\uc18c(CSIS)\uc5d0 \uac8c\uc7ac\ub41c “\ub2f9\uadfc\uacfc \ucc44\ucc0d \uadf8\ub9ac\uace0 \ud574\uba38:\uc720\uac00 \uc778\ud558\ub97c \uc704\ud55c \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504\uc758 \uc120\ud0dd”(Carrots, Sticks, and Sledgehammers: Trump\u2019s Options for Reducing U.S. Oil Prices)<\/a>\uc744 \uc815\ub9ac\ud55c \uac83\uc784.<\/h6>\n

\ub450 \ubc88\uc9f8 \uc784\uae30\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud55c \ub3c4\ub110\ub4dc \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \ub300\ud1b5\ub839\uc740 \uc11d\uc720 \uac00\uaca9 \uc778\ud558\ub97c \uc8fc\uc694 \ubaa9\ud45c\ub85c \uc124\uc815\ud558\uc600\uc74c. \uadf8\ub294 ‘\ubbf8\uad6d \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \ud574\ubc29(Unleashing American Energy<\/a>) \ud589\uc815\uba85\ub839’\uc744 \ubc1c\ub3d9\ud588\uace0, 1\uc6d4 23\uc77c (\ud604\uc9c0\uc2dc\uac01) \ub2e4\ubcf4\uc2a4 \uc138\uacc4\uacbd\uc81c\ud3ec\ub7fc(Davos World Economic Forum) \uc5f0\uc124\uc5d0\uc11c \uc11d\uc720 \uac00\uaca9\uc744 \ub0ae\ucd94\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \ud575\uc2ec \uacbd\uc81c \uc815\ucc45 \uc911 \ud558\ub098\ub77c\uace0 \ubc1d\ud798.<\/p>\n

\ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \ub300\ud1b5\ub839\uc740 \ub0ae\uc740 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ub450 \uac00\uc9c0 \uc804\ub7b5\uc801 \ubaa9\ud45c\ub97c \ub2ec\uc131\ud558\ub294 \ub370 \ub3c4\uc6c0\uc774 \ub420 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \uc8fc\uc7a5\ud588\uc74c.<\/p>\n

1. \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc5b5\uc81c \uc218\ub2e8: \ub0ae\uc740 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4(Fed)\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\ub97c \uc720\ub3c4\ud558\uace0 \uacbd\uc81c \uc131\uc7a5 \ucd09\uc9c4.
\n2. \uc6b0\ud06c\ub77c\uc774\ub098 \uc804\uc7c1 \uc870\uae30 \uc885\uc2dd: \ub0ae\uc740 \uc11d\uc720 \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ub7ec\uc2dc\uc544\uc758 \uc6d0\uc720 \uc218\ucd9c \uc218\uc775\uc744 \uac10\uc18c\uc2dc\ucf1c \uc804\uc7c1 \uc218\ud589 \ub2a5\ub825\uc744 \uc57d\ud654\uc2dc\ud0ac \uac83\uc784.<\/p>\n

\ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc, 2\uc6d4 12\uc77c \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504\uc640 \ud478\ud2f4 \uac04 \uc804\ud654 \ud1b5\ud654, 2\uc6d4 18\uc77c \ub9ac\uc57c\ub4dc\uc5d0\uc11c \uc591\uad6d \uace0\uc704 \uad00\uacc4\uc790 \ud68c\ub2f4, 2\uc6d4 24\uc77c \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504\uc758 “\uc804\uc7c1\uc774 \uba87 \uc8fc \ub0b4 \ub05d\ub0a0 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4”\ub294 \ubc1c\uc5b8 \ub4f1\uc744 \uace0\ub824\ud558\uba74 \uc11d\uc720 \uac00\uaca9 \ud558\ub77d\uc774 \uc804\uc7c1 \uc885\uc2dd\uc744 \uc720\ub3c4\ud55c\ub2e4\ub294 \ub17c\ub9ac\ub294 \ud604\uc7ac \uc6b0\uc120\uc21c\uc704\uc5d0\uc11c \ubc00\ub824\ub09c \ub4ef\ud568.<\/p>\n


\n\ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504\uac00 \uc6d0\ud558\ub294 \uc11d\uc720 \uac00\uaca9 \uc218\uc900\uc740?<\/strong><\/h5>\n

2024\ub144 10\uc6d4 21\uc77c \ub178\uc2a4\uce90\ub864\ub77c\uc774\ub098 \uadf8\ub9b0\ube4c(Greenville) \uc720\uc138\uc5d0\uc11c \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504\ub294 “\ubbf8\uad6d \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uac00\uaca9\uc744 50% \ub0ae\ucd9c \uac83”\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \uacf5\uc57d\ud558\uc600\uc74c.<\/p>\n

\u2022 \ub2f9\uc2dc \uc11c\ubd80\ud14d\uc0ac\uc2a4\uc0b0\uc6d0\uc720(WTI) \uac00\uaca9: \ubc30\ub7f4\ub2f9 71\ub2ec\ub7ec (\uc57d 10\ub9cc3000\uc6d0)
\n\u2022 \ub2f9\uc2dc \ubbf8\uad6d \ud3c9\uade0 \ud718\ubc1c\uc720 \uac00\uaca9: \uac24\ub7f0\ub2f9 3.14\ub2ec\ub7ec (\uc57d 4554\uc6d0)
\n\u2022 \uc774\ub97c 50% \ub0ae\ucd94\uba74 WTI \ubc30\ub7f4\ub2f9 36\ub2ec\ub7ec(5\ub9cc2000\uc6d0), \ud718\ubc1c\uc720 \uac24\ub7f0\ub2f91.57\ub2ec\ub7ec(\uc57d 2277\uc6d0) \uc218\uc900<\/p>\n

\ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 1\uae30(2017~2020\ub144) \ub3d9\uc548 WTI \ud3c9\uade0 \uac00\uaca9\uc740 \ubc30\ub7f4\ub2f9 58\ub2ec\ub7ec(\uc57d 8\ub9cc4000\uc6d0)\uc600\uc74c.<\/p>\n

\u2022 \uc624\ubc14\ub9c8 2\uae30(2013~2016\ub144): \ud3c9\uade0 70\ub2ec\ub7ec(\uc57d 10\ub9cc1500\uc6d0)
\n\u2022 \ubc14\uc774\ub4e0 \ud589\uc815\ubd80(2021~2024\ub144): \ud3c9\uade0 79\ub2ec\ub7ec(\uc57d 10\ub9cc4500\uc6d0)<\/p>\n

\ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504\ub294 \ubc30\ub7f4\ub2f9 40~60\ub2ec\ub7ec (\uc57d 5\ub9cc8000~8\ub9cc7000\uc6d0) \uc218\uc900\uc744 \uc801\uc815 \uac00\uaca9\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\uace0 \uc788\uace0 2020\ub144 \ucd08 \ud32c\ub370\ubbf9\uc73c\ub85c \uc778\ud574 WTI\uac00 40\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc544\ub798\ub85c \ub5a8\uc5b4\uc84c\uc744 \ub54c\uc870\ucc28 \uac1c\uc785\ud558\uc5ec \uac00\uaca9 \ud558\ub77d\uc744 \ub9c9\uc558\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc744 \uace0\ub824\ud558\uba74, \ucd5c\uc18c 40\ub2ec\ub7ec (\uc57d 5\ub9cc8000\uc6d0)\uc774\uc0c1\uc758 \uac00\uaca9\uc744 \uc120\ud638\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131<\/strong>\uc774 \ud07c.<\/p>\n


\n\ub204\uac00 \uc11d\uc720 \uac00\uaca9\uc744 \ub0ae\ucd9c \uc218 \uc788\ub294\uac00?<\/strong><\/h5>\n

\ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \ub300\ud1b5\ub839\uc740 \uc11d\uc720 \uacf5\uae09\uc744 \uc99d\uac00\uc2dc\ud0ac \ub450 \uac00\uc9c0 \uc6d0\ucc9c\uc744 \uace0\ub824 \uc911\uc784.<\/p>\n

1. \ubbf8\uad6d \ub0b4 \uc11d\uc720 \uc0dd\uc0b0 \ud655\ub300<\/strong>: \uaddc\uc81c \uc644\ud654\ub97c \ud1b5\ud574 \uc0dd\uc0b0 \uc99d\uac00 \uc720\ub3c4.
\n2. OPEC+ \uc555\ubc15<\/strong>: \uac10\uc0b0 \uc815\ucc45\uc744 \ucca0\ud68c\ud558\uace0 \uacf5\uae09 \uc99d\uac00 \uc555\ubc15.<\/p>\n

\ubbf8\uad6d \ub0b4 \uc11d\uc720 \uc0dd\uc0b0 \ud655\ub300 \uc804\ub7b5<\/strong>
\n\ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504\ub294 \ubbf8\uad6d \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \ud574\ubc29 \ud589\uc815\uba85\ub839\uc744 \ud1b5\ud574 \uc11d\uc720\u00b7\uac00\uc2a4 \uc5c5\uacc4\uac00 \uc694\uad6c\ud574\uc628 \ub300\ubd80\ubd84\uc758 \uc815\ucc45 \uc644\ud654\ub97c \ucd94\uc9c4\ud558\uc600\uc74c.<\/p>\n

\u2022 \uc624\uc77c\ud544\ub4dc \ubc30\ucd9c \uaddc\uc81c \uc644\ud654
\n\u2022 \uc5f0\ubc29 \uacf5\uacf5 \ud1a0\uc9c0 \ubc0f \ud574\uc0c1 \uc2dc\ucd94 \ud5c8\uac00 \uac04\uc18c\ud654
\n\u2022 \uc54c\ub798\uc2a4\uce74 \uad6d\ub9bd\uc57c\uc0dd\ub3d9\ubb3c\ubcf4\ud638\uad6c\uc5ed(ANWR) \uc2dc\ucd94 \uc7ac\uac1c<\/p>\n

\ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc870\uce58\ub4e4\uc774 \ub2e8\uae30\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ubbf8\uad6d \uc6d0\uc720 \uc0dd\uc0b0\uc744 \uc99d\uac00\uc2dc\ud0ac \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc740 \ub0ae\uc74c.<\/p>\n

\u2022 \ubbf8\uad6d \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0\uc815\ubcf4\uccad(EIA)\uc740 2026\ub144\uae4c\uc9c0 \ubbf8\uad6d \uc6d0\uc720 \uc0dd\uc0b0\uc774 \ud558\ub8e8 52\ub9cc \ubc30\ub7f4(4%) \uc99d\uac00\ud560 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \uc804\ub9dd\ud568.
\n\u2022 \uc774\ub294 \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504\uc758 \uaddc\uc81c \uc644\ud654 \uc804 \ubc1c\ud45c\ub41c \uc218\uce58\ub85c, \ucd94\uac00\uc801\uc778 \uae09\uaca9\ud55c \uc99d\uc0b0 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc740 \ub0ae\uc74c.
\n\u2022 2022~2023\ub144 \ub2e8\uae30\uc801\uc778 8.6% \uc99d\uc0b0(\ud558\ub8e8 100\ub9cc \ubc30\ub7f4)\uc740 \uc608\uc678\uc801 \ud604\uc0c1\uc774\uc5c8\uc74c.
\n\u2022 \uc170\uc77c \uc624\uc77c \uc0dd\uc0b0\uc758 \ud575\uc2ec \uc9c0\uc5ed(\ub178\uc2a4\ub2e4\ucf54\ud0c0 \ubc14\ucf04, \ud14d\uc0ac\uc2a4 \uc774\uae00\ud3ec\ub4dc) \uc0dd\uc0b0\ub7c9\uc774 \uc815\uc810\uc744 \uc9c0\ub098 \uac10\uc18c\uc138\uc784.<\/p>\n

\ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504\ub294 \uaddc\uc81c \uc644\ud654\uac00 \uc5c5\uacc4\uc758 \uc99d\uc0b0\uc744 \uc720\ub3c4\ud560 \uac83\uc774\ub77c \ubcf4\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc2e4\uc81c \uacb0\uc815\uad8c\uc740 \uc6d4\uac00 \ud22c\uc790\uc790\ub4e4\uc5d0\uac8c \uc788\uc74c.<\/p>\n

\u2022 \ubbf8\uad6d \uc11d\uc720\uc5c5\uccb4\ub4e4\uc740 \uc800\uc720\uac00\ub97c \uc6d0\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc73c\uba70, \uc218\uc775\uc131\uc744 \uc6b0\uc120\uc2dc\ud568.
\n\u2022 \ubbf8\uad6d \uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc740\ud589(Fed) \ub2ec\ub77c\uc2a4 \uc9c0\ubd80\uc758 \uc124\ubb38 \uc870\uc0ac \uacb0\uacfc:
\n– 2025\ub144 \ub9d0 \uc608\uc0c1 WTI \uac00\uaca9 71\ub2ec\ub7ec (\uc57d 10\ub9cc3000\uc6d0)
\n– 2026\ub144 \uc608\uc0c1 \uac00\uaca9 74\ub2ec\ub7ec (\uc57d 10\ub9cc7000\uc6d0)
\n– \uc170\uc77c \uc624\uc77c \uc0dd\uc0b0 \uc190\uc775\ubd84\uae30\uc810: \ubc30\ub7f4\ub2f9 \ud3c9\uade0 64\ub2ec\ub7ec (\uc57d9\ub9cc3000\uc6d0)<\/p>\n


\nOPEC+\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc555\ubc15<\/strong><\/h5>\n

*OPEC+: \uc11d\uc720\uc218\ucd9c\uad6d\uae30\uad6c(OPEC: Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries)\uc640 \ub7ec\uc2dc\uc544\ub97c \ud3ec\ud568\ud55c \ube44(\u975e)OPEC \uc8fc\uc694 \uc0b0\uc720\uad6d\ub4e4\uc774 \uacb0\uc131\ud55c \ud611\ub825\uccb4\uc784. 2016\ub144\uc5d0 \uacb0\uc131\ub418\uc5c8\uace0, \uc138\uacc4 \uc6d0\uc720 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uc548\uc815\uc131\uacfc \uac00\uaca9 \uc870\uc815\uc744 \ubaa9\ud45c\ub85c \ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc74c.<\/em><\/p>\n

    \n
  • OPEC \ud68c\uc6d0\uad6d(13\uac1c\uad6d): \uc0ac\uc6b0\ub514\uc544\ub77c\ube44\uc544, \uc774\ub780, \uc774\ub77c\ud06c, \ucfe0\uc6e8\uc774\ud2b8, UAE, \ub9ac\ube44\uc544, \ub098\uc774\uc9c0\ub9ac\uc544, \ubca0\ub124\uc218\uc5d8\ub77c \ub4f1<\/em><\/li>\n
  • \u975eOPEC \uc8fc\uc694 \uc0b0\uc720\uad6d(10\uac1c\uad6d, ‘\ud50c\ub7ec\uc2a4’ \uadf8\ub8f9): \ub7ec\uc2dc\uc544, \uba55\uc2dc\ucf54, \uce74\uc790\ud750\uc2a4\ud0c4, \uc544\uc81c\ub974\ubc14\uc774\uc794, \uc624\ub9cc \ub4f1<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    2025\ub144 1\uc6d4 23\uc77c \ub2e4\ubcf4\uc2a4 \uc5f0\uc124\uc5d0\uc11c \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504\ub294 “\uc0ac\uc6b0\ub514\uc544\ub77c\ube44\uc544\uc640 OPEC\uc5d0 \uae30\ub984\uac12\uc744 \ub0b4\ub824\ub2ec\ub77c\uace0 \uc694\uccad\ud560 \uac83”\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ubc1d\ud798.<\/p>\n

    \ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc OPEC+\ub294 \uc9c0\ub09c 2\ub144 \ub3d9\uc548 \ubcf4\uc218\uc801\uc778 \uac10\uc0b0 \uc815\ucc45\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70,<\/p>\n

    \u2022 2024\ub144 \uc5ec\ub984\ubd80\ud130 \uacf5\uae09 \uc99d\uac00 \uacc4\ud68d\uc744 \uc5ec\ub7ec \ucc28\ub840 \uc5f0\uae30\ud568.
    \n\u2022 \ud604\uc7ac \uacc4\ud68d: 2025\ub144 4\uc6d4\ubd80\ud130 \ub9e4\uc6d4 12\ub9cc \ubc30\ub7f4 \uc99d\uc0b0 (\uc804 \uc138\uacc4 \uc218\uc694 \ub300\ube44 \ubbf8\ubbf8\ud55c \uc218\uc900).
    \n\u2022 \uc0ac\uc6b0\ub514\uc544\ub77c\ube44\uc544\ub294 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc810\uc720\uc728\uc744 \ud76c\uc0dd\ud558\uba74\uc11c\uae4c\uc9c0 \uac10\uc0b0 \uc815\ucc45 \uc720\uc9c0 \uc911\uc784.<\/p>\n

    \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504\ub294 \uc0ac\uc6b0\ub514, \ub7ec\uc2dc\uc544, UAE\uc640\uc758 \ud611\uc0c1\uc744 \ud1b5\ud574 \uc99d\uc0b0\uc744 \uc720\ub3c4\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \uc788\uc74c.<\/p>\n

    \u2022 \ubb34\uae30 \uac70\ub798 \ubc0f \ubc29\uc704 \ud611\ub825 \uac15\ud654 \ub300\uac00\ub85c \uc99d\uc0b0 \uc694\uad6c.
    \n\u2022 \ub7ec\uc2dc\uc544\uc640\uc758 \uad00\uacc4 \uc815\uc0c1\ud654\ub97c \ud1b5\ud574 \uc99d\uc0b0 \uc720\ub3c4 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131.<\/p>\n

    \ub9cc\uc57d OPEC+\uac00 \uc99d\uc0b0\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc744 \uacbd\uc6b0, \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504\ub294 \ub354 \uac15\uacbd\ud55c \ub300\uc751\uc744 \ud560 \uc218\ub3c4 \uc788\uc74c.<\/p>\n

    \u2022 \uc0ac\uc6b0\ub514\uc544\ub77c\ube44\uc544\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ubb34\uae30 \uc218\ucd9c \uc81c\ud55c \ubc0f \uad70\uc0ac \ud611\ub825 \ucd95\uc18c \uc704\ud611.
    \n\u2022 NOPEC \ubc95\uc548(\ubc18\uc11d\uc720\uc218\ucd9c\uad6d\uae30\uad6c \ubc95\uc548) \ucd94\uc9c4 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131 \u2192 OPEC\uc744 \ub3c5\uc810 \uce74\ub974\ud154\ub85c \uc9c0\uc815\ud558\uace0 \ubc18\ub3c5\uc810 \uc18c\uc1a1 \ucd94\uc9c4.<\/p>\n


    \n\uacb0\ub860<\/strong><\/h5>\n

    \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \ub300\ud1b5\ub839\uc740 \uc11d\uc720 \uac00\uaca9 \uc778\ud558\ub97c \ucd5c\uc6b0\uc120 \uacbd\uc81c \uacfc\uc81c\ub85c \ub0b4\uc138\uc6b0\uace0 \uc788\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc2e4\uc81c\ub85c \uc774\ub97c \uc2e4\ud604\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud55c \ubc29\ubc95\uc5d0\ub294 \uc5ec\ub7ec \uc81c\uc57d\uc774 \uc788\uc74c.
    \n\ubbf8\uad6d \ub0b4 \uc6d0\uc720 \uc0dd\uc0b0 \uc99d\uac00 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc740 \uc0ac\uc2e4\uc0c1 \uc81c\ud55c\uc801\uc73c\ub85c, OPEC+\uc758 \uc99d\uc0b0\uc744 \uac15\ud558\uac8c \uc555\ubc15\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \uc788\uc74c.
    \n\uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \uc774\ub780\u00b7\ub7ec\uc2dc\uc544 \uc81c\uc7ac, \uce90\ub098\ub2e4\u00b7\uba55\uc2dc\ucf54\uc0b0 \uc6d0\uc720 \uad00\uc138\ub4f1\uc758 \uc815\uc138\uac00 \uc624\ud788\ub824 \uc720\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uc694\uc778\uc73c\ub85c \uc791\uc6a9\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud07c.
    \n\uacb0\uacfc\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504\uc758 \uc11d\uc720 \uac00\uaca9 \uc778\ud558 \uc815\ucc45\uc774 \uc131\uacf5\ud560\uc9c0\ub294 \ubbf8\uc9c0\uc218\uc774\uace0, \ub2e8\uae30\uc801\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \ucee4\uc9c8 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud07c.<\/p>\n

    (1\ubc30\ub7f4=158.9\ub9ac\ud130)
    \n(1\uac24\ub7f0=3.79\ub9ac\ud130)
    \n(1\ub2ec\ub7ec=1450\uc6d0)<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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