{"id":22953,"date":"2025-04-14T06:04:11","date_gmt":"2025-04-13T21:04:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sanctionlab.com\/?p=22953"},"modified":"2025-04-21T08:31:37","modified_gmt":"2025-04-20T23:31:37","slug":"%ec%8b%ac%ec%b8%b5%eb%b6%84%ec%84%9d-%ed%94%bc%ed%84%b0%ec%8a%a8-%ea%b2%bd%ec%a0%9c%ec%97%b0%ea%b5%ac%ec%86%8c%ec%9e%a5-%ed%8a%b8%eb%9f%bc%ed%94%84%ec%9d%98-%e5%b0%8d%e4%b8%ad-%ea%b4%80%ec%84%b8","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sanctionlab.com\/?p=22953","title":{"rendered":"[\uc2ec\uce35\ubd84\uc11d] \ud53c\ud130\uc2a8 \uacbd\uc81c\uc5f0\uad6c\uc18c\uc7a5 &#8220;\ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504\uc758 \u5c0d\u4e2d \uad00\uc138\uc804\uc7c1, \u2018\uacbd\uc81c\uc801 \ubca0\ud2b8\ub0a8\u6230\u2019\ub41c\ub2e4&#8221;"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\ud3b8\uc9d1\uc790 \uc8fc:\ubcf8 \uae00\uc740 \ud3ec\ub9b0\uc5b4\ud398\uc5b4\uc2a4(Foreign Affairs)\uc5d0 \uac8c\uc7ac\ub41c \uc560\ub364 \ud3ec\uc98c(Adam E. Posen)\uc758 \uae30\uace0\ubb38 &#8216;\ubb34\uc5ed\uc804\uc7c1\uc740 \uc9c0\uae30 \uc26c\uc6b4 \uc2f8\uc6c0\uc774\ub2e4(<a href=\"https:\/\/www.foreignaffairs.com\/united-states\/trade-wars-are-easy-lose\">Trade wars are easy to lose<\/a>)\ub97c \uc694\uc57d \uc815\ub9ac\ud55c \uac83\uc784.<\/p>\n<p>\uc560\ub364 \ud3ec\uc98c\uc740 \uc138\uacc4\uc801\uc778 \uad6d\uc81c\uacbd\uc81c\ud559\uc790\ub85c, \ud604\uc7ac \ubbf8\uad6d \ud53c\ud130\uc2a8\uad6d\uc81c\uacbd\uc81c\uc5f0\uad6c\uc18c(PIIE) \uc18c\uc7a5\uc744 \ub9e1\uace0 \uc788\uc74c. \ud558\ubc84\ub4dc\ub300\ud559\uad50\uc5d0\uc11c \uacbd\uc81c\ud559 \ubc15\uc0ac \ud559\uc704\ub97c \ubc1b\uc558\uace0, \ubbf8\uad6d \uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4\uc774\uc0ac\ud68c(FRB) \uc774\ucf54\ub178\ubbf8\uc2a4\ud2b8, \uad6d\uc81c\ud1b5\ud654\uae30\uae08(IMF) \uc790\ubb38\uc5ed, \uc601\uad6d\uc740\ud589(BOE) \uae08\uc735\uc815\ucc45\uc704\uc6d0\ud68c \uc678\ubd80\uc704\uc6d0 \ub4f1\uc744 \uc5ed\uc784\ud588\uc74c. \uac70\uc2dc\uacbd\uc81c, \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45, \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \ubb34\uc5ed \ubc0f \uc911\uad6d \uacbd\uc81c\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc804\ubb38\uc131\uc744 \ubc14\ud0d5\uc73c\ub85c \uc8fc\uc694 \uad6d\uc81c\uae30\uad6c\uc640 \uc815\ubd80\uc758 \uc815\ucc45 \uc218\ub9bd\uc5d0 \uae4a\uc774 \uad00\uc5ec\ud574\uc654\uc74c.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;\ubbf8\uad6d\uc740 \uc0ac\uc2e4\uc0c1 \uac70\ub798\ud558\ub294 \ubaa8\ub4e0 \ub098\ub77c\uc640\uc758 \ubb34\uc5ed\uc5d0\uc11c \uc218\ucc9c\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc529 \uc190\ud574\ub97c \ubcf4\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \ubb34\uc5ed\uc804\uc7c1\uc740 \uc88b\uc740 \uac83\uc774\uace0, \uc774\uae30\uae30\ub3c4 \uc27d\ub2e4.&#8221;\u00a0 \u2014 2018\ub144 \ub3c4\ub110\ub4dc \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \ubbf8\uad6d \ub300\ud1b5\ub839\uc758 \ud2b8\uc717 \uc911<\/p>\n<p>\ucd5c\uadfc \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \ud589\uc815\ubd80\uac00 \uc911\uad6d\uc0b0 \uc218\uc785\ud488\uc5d0 100%\ub97c \ucd08\uacfc\ud558\ub294 \uace0\uc728 \uad00\uc138\ub97c \ubd80\uacfc\ud558\uba70 \uc0c8\ub86d\uace0 \ub354\uc6b1 \uc704\ud5d8\ud55c \ubb34\uc5ed\uc804\uc7c1\uc5d0 \ubd88\uc744 \ubd99\uc600\uc74c. \ubbf8\uad6d \uc7ac\ubb34\uc7a5\uad00 \uc2a4\ucf67 \ubca0\uc13c\ud2b8(Scott Bessent)\ub294 \uc774\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \ub2e4\uc74c\uacfc \uac19\uc740 \ub17c\ub9ac\ub97c \ud3c8\uc74c.<\/p>\n<p>\u201c\uc911\uad6d\uc774 \uad00\uc138\ub97c \uc62c\ub9b0 \uac74 \ud070 \uc2e4\uc218\ub2e4. \uc911\uad6d\uc774 \uc6b0\ub9ac(\ubbf8\uad6d)\uc5d0\uac8c \uad00\uc138 \uc62c\ub9b0\ub4e4 \uc6b0\ub9ac\uac00 \uc783\uc744 \uac8c \ubb50\uac00 \uc788\ub294\uac00? \uc6b0\ub9ac\uac00 \uc911\uad6d\uc5d0 \uc218\ucd9c\ud558\ub294 \uac74 \uc911\uad6d\uc774 \uc6b0\ub9ac\ud55c\ud14c \ud30c\ub294 \uac83\uc758 5\ubd84\uc758 1\uc5d0 \ubd88\uacfc\ud558\ub2e4. \uacb0\uad6d \uadf8\ub4e4(\uc911\uad6d)\uc740 \uc9c0\ub294 \ud328\ub85c \uc2f8\uc6b0\uace0 \uc788\ub294 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\uc694\ucee8\ub300, \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \ud589\uc815\ubd80\ub294 \ubbf8\uad6d\uc774 \uc911\uad6d\ubcf4\ub2e4 \u2018\ud655\uc804 \uc6b0\uc704(escalation dominance)\u2019\ub97c \uac00\uc9c0\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubbff\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h4><strong>\ud655\uc804 \uc6b0\uc704\ub97c \uac00\uc9c4\ucabd\uc740?<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>\ud655\uc804 \uc6b0\uc704\ub780, \ubbf8\uad6d \ub79c\ub4dc \uc5f0\uad6c\uc18c(RAND Institute)\uc758 \uc815\uc758\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 &#8220;\uc0c1\ub300\uac00 \uac10\ub2f9\ud560 \uc218 \uc5c6\uc744 \uc815\ub3c4\uc758 \ube44\uc6a9\uc744 \uc9c0\uc6b0\ub294 \ubc29\uc2dd\uc73c\ub85c \ubd84\uc7c1\uc744 \uaca9\ud654\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \ub2a5\ub825\uc744 \uc77c\ubc29\uc774 \uac00\uc9c0\uace0 \uc788\uace0, \ubc18\uba74 \uc0c1\ub300\ubc29\uc740 \uac19\uc740 \ubc29\uc2dd\uc73c\ub85c \ub300\uc751\ud560 \uc218 \uc5c6\ub294 \uc0c1\ud0dc&#8221;\ub97c \uc758\ubbf8\ud568.<\/p>\n<p>\uc774 \ub17c\ub9ac\ub300\ub85c\ub77c\uba74, \uc911\uad6d\uc774\ub098 \uce90\ub098\ub2e4\ucc98\ub7fc \ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \uad00\uc138\uc5d0 \ubcf4\ubcf5\ud558\ub294 \ub098\ub77c\ub294 \uc560\ucd08\uc5d0 \ud328\ubc30\uac00 \uc608\uc815\ub41c \uc2f8\uc6c0\uc744 \ubc8c\uc774\uace0 \uc788\ub294 \uc148\uc784.\u00a0\uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \uc774 \ub17c\ub9ac\ub294 \ud2c0\ub838\uc74c. \ubb34\uc5ed\uc804\uc7c1\uc5d0\uc11c \uc5d0\uc2a4\uceec\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc6b0\uc704\ub97c \uc954 \ucabd\uc740 \uc624\ud788\ub824 \uc911\uad6d\uc784.<\/p>\n<p>\ubbf8\uad6d\uc740 \uc911\uad6d\uc73c\ub85c\ubd80\ud130 \ub2e8\uae30\uac04\uc5d0 \ub300\uccb4 \ubd88\uac00\ub2a5\ud55c \ud575\uc2ec \ubb3c\uc790\ub97c \ub2e4\uc218 \uc218\uc785\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub294\ub370, \uc774\ub97c \ubbf8\uad6d \ub0b4\uc5d0\uc11c \uc0dd\uc0b0\ud558\ub824\uba74 \ucc9c\ubb38\ud559\uc801\uc778 \ube44\uc6a9\uc774 \uc18c\uc694\ub428.<\/p>\n<p>\ubb3c\ub860 \uc774\ub7f0 \uc758\uc874\ub3c4\ub97c \uc904\uc774\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \ud544\uc694\ud558\ub2e4\ub294 \ub17c\ub9ac\ub294 \uc788\uc744 \uc218 \uc788\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc900\ube44 \uc5c6\uc774 \uc804\uc7c1\ubd80\ud130 \uc2dc\uc791\ud55c\ub2e4\uba74 \uac70\uc758 \ud655\uc2e4\ud55c \ud328\ubc30\ub97c \uc790\ucd08\ud558\ub294 \uc148\uc784.\u00a0\ubca0\uc13c\ud2b8\uc758 \ud3ec\ucee4 \ube44\uc720\ub97c \ube4c\ub9ac\uc790\uba74, \uc9c0\uae08 \uc9c0\ub294 \ud328\ub85c \u2018\uc62c\uc778\u2019\uc744 \uc678\uce58\ub294 \ucabd\uc740 \ubca0\uc774\uc9d5\uc774 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c \uc6cc\uc2f1\ud134\uc784.<\/p>\n<h4><\/h4>\n<h4><strong>\ub2f9\uc2e0\uc758 \ud328\ub97c \uacf5\uac1c\ud558\ub77c(Show your hands!!!)<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>\ud589\uc815\ubd80\uc758 \uc8fc\uc7a5\uc740 \ub450 \uac00\uc9c0 \uba74\uc5d0\uc11c \uc798\ubabb\ub418\uc5c8\uc74c.<\/p>\n<p>\uccab\uc9f8, \ubb34\uc5ed\uc804\uc7c1\uc740 \uc591\ucabd \ubaa8\ub450\uac00 \ud53c\ud574\ub97c \uc785\ub294 \uc2f8\uc6c0\uc784. \uacbd\uc81c\uac00 \ud544\uc694\ub85c \ud558\uace0, \uc18c\ube44\uc790\uc640 \uae30\uc5c5\uc774 \ube44\uc6a9\uc744 \uac10\uc218\ud574\uc11c\ub77c\ub3c4 \uc0ac\uace0\uc790 \ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc811\uadfc\uc744 \uc11c\ub85c \ucc28\ub2e8\ud558\ub294 \ud589\uc704\uc774\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc784.\u00a0\uc2e4\uc81c \uc804\uc7c1\uc774 \uadf8\ub807\ub4ef, \ubb34\uc5ed\uc804\uc7c1\ub3c4 \uacf5\uaca9\uc790\uc758 \ubcf8\ud1a0\uc640 \ubcd1\ub825\ub3c4 \uc704\ud5d8\uc5d0 \ube60\ub728\ub9ac\ub294 \ud30c\uad34\uc801 \ud589\uc704\uc784. \ub9cc\uc57d \ubc29\uc5b4 \uce21\uc774 \ubc18\uaca9\uc744 \ud1b5\ud574 \uc0c1\ub300\ub97c \ud574\uce60 \uc218 \uc5c6\ub2e4\uace0 \ud310\ub2e8\ud588\ub2e4\uba74, \uc560\ucd08\uc5d0 \uc800\ud56d\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uace0 \ud56d\ubcf5\ud588\uc744 \uac83\uc784.<\/p>\n<p>\ub458\uc9f8, \ubca0\uc13c\ud2b8\uac00 \ub4e0 \ud3ec\ucee4 \ube44\uc720\ub294 \ubd80\uc801\uc808\ud568.\u00a0\ud3ec\ucee4\ub294 \uc81c\ub85c\uc12c(zero-sum) \uac8c\uc784\uc784. \ub0b4\uac00 \uc774\uae30\uba74 \ub124\uac00 \uc9c4\ub2e4. \ub124\uac00 \uc774\uae30\uba74 \ub0b4\uac00 \uc9c4\ub2e4.\u00a0\ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc \ubb34\uc5ed\uc740 \ud3ec\uc9c0\ud2f0\ube0c\uc12c(positive-sum) \uac8c\uc784\uc784. \ub300\uccb4\ub85c \ub2f9\uc2e0\uc774 \ub354 \uc798\ub418\uba74 \ub098\ub3c4 \uc774\uc775\uc774\uace0, \ub098\ub3c4 \uc798\ub418\uba74 \ub2f9\uc2e0\ub3c4 \uc720\ub9ac\ud55c \uad6c\uc870\uc784.\u00a0\ud3ec\ucee4\uc5d0\uc120 \ud310\ub3c8\uc744 \uc783\uc73c\uba74 \uc774\uae30\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud55c \uc774\uc0c1 \ub3cc\ub824\ubc1b\uc744 \uac8c \uc5c6\uc9c0\ub9cc, \ubb34\uc5ed\uc5d0\uc120 \ubb3c\uac74\uacfc \uc11c\ube44\uc2a4\ub97c \uc989\uc2dc \ubc1b\uc744 \uc218 \uc788\uc74c.<\/p>\n<h4><\/h4>\n<h4><strong>\ubb34\uc5ed\uc218\uc9c0 \uc801\uc790\uac00 \u2018\uc6b0\uc704\u2019\ub77c\ub294 \ucc29\uac01<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>\ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \ud589\uc815\ubd80\ub294 \uc774\ub807\uac8c \ubbff\uace0 \uc788\uc74c:\u00a0\u201c\ubbf8\uad6d\uc740 \uc911\uad6d\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub354 \ub9ce\uc774 \uc218\uc785\ud558\ub2c8\uae4c, \ub35c \uc783\uc744 \uac83\uc774\uace0 \ub35c \ucde8\uc57d\ud558\ub2e4.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc \uc774\uac74 \uc0ac\uc2e4\uc774 \uc544\ub2d8. \ub2e8\uc21c\ud55c \uacac\ud574 \ucc28\uc774\ub3c4 \uc544\ub2cc, \uadf8\ub0e5 \ud2c0\ub9b0 \ub9d0\uc784.\u00a0\ubb34\uc5ed\uc744 \ucc28\ub2e8\ud558\uba74 \uadf8 \uad6d\uac00\ub294 \uc2e4\uc9c8\uc18c\ub4dd\uacfc \uad6c\ub9e4\ub825\uc744 \uc783\uac8c\ub428. \uad6d\uac00\uac00 \uc218\ucd9c\uc744 \ud558\ub294 \uc774\uc720\ub294 \uc790\uc2e0\uc774 \ub9cc\ub4e4 \uc218 \uc5c6\uac70\ub098, \ub108\ubb34 \ube44\uc2f8\uc11c \ub9cc\ub4e4 \uc218 \uc5c6\ub294 \ubb3c\uac74\uc744 \uc678\uad6d\uc5d0\uc11c \uc0ac\uae30 \uc704\ud55c \ub3c8\uc744 \ubc8c\uae30 \uc704\ud574\uc11c\uc784.<\/p>\n<p>\ub354 \ub098\uc544\uac00 \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \ud589\uc815\ubd80\ucc98\ub7fc \uc591\uad6d \uac04 \ubb34\uc5ed\uc218\uc9c0(\uc218\ucd9c-\uc218\uc785 \ucc28\uc774)\ub9cc \ubcf4\ub354\ub77c\ub3c4 \uc774 \ub17c\ub9ac\ub294 \ubbf8\uad6d\uc5d0 \ubd88\ub9ac\ud568.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>2024\ub144 \uae30\uc900:<br \/>\n&#8211; \ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \ub300(\u5c0d)\uc911\uad6d \uc218\ucd9c: 1992\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec(\uc57d 287\uc870 7000\uc5b5\uc6d0)<br \/>\n&#8211; \uc911\uad6d\uc73c\ub85c\ubd80\ud130\uc758 \uc218\uc785: 4625\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec (\uc57d 668\uc870\uc6d0)<br \/>\n&#8211; \ubb34\uc5ed\uc801\uc790: 2633\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec (\uc57d 380\uc870 3000\uc5b5\uc6d0)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\uc989, \ubbf8\uad6d\uc740 \uc911\uad6d\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ud6e8\uc52c \ub9ce\uc740 \uac83\uc744 \uc218\uc785\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc74c. \ubb34\uc5ed\uc218\uc9c0\ub9cc \ub193\uace0 \ubcf4\ub354\ub77c\ub3c4, \uc801\uc790\uad6d(\ubbf8\uad6d)\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ud751\uc790\uad6d(\uc911\uad6d)\uc774 \uc190\ud574\uac00 \uc801\uc74c.<\/p>\n<p>\uc65c\ub0d0\ud558\uba74:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\uc911\uad6d\uc740 \u2018\uc218\ucd9c \uae30\ud68c\u2019\ub97c \uc783\ub294 \uac83\uc774\uace0,<\/li>\n<li>\ubbf8\uad6d\uc740 \u2018\uc2e4\uc81c\ub85c \ud544\uc694\ud55c \ubb3c\uac74\u2019\uc744 \uc783\ub294 \uac83\uc774\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc784.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\ub3c8\uc740 \ub300\uccb4 \uac00\ub2a5(fungible)\ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc800\ub834\ud55c \ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4\ub098 \ud544\uc218 \uc57d\ud488 \uac19\uc740 \uc2e4\ubb3c\uc740 \uc27d\uac8c \ub300\uccb4\ud560 \uc218 \uc5c6\uc74c.<\/p>\n<h4><\/h4>\n<h4><strong>\ud751\uc790\uad6d vs. \uc801\uc790\uad6d: \ub204\uac00 \ub354 \uc720\uc5f0\ud55c\uac00?<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>\uc911\uad6d\ucc98\ub7fc \ubb34\uc5ed\ud751\uc790\uac00 \ub9ce\uc740 \ub098\ub77c\ub4e4\uc740, \ud1b5\uc0c1 \uc800\ucd95\uc774 \ud22c\uc790\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub9ce\uc74c. \uc989, \ub3c8\uc774 \ub0a8\uc544\ub3c4\ub294 \uac83\uc784. \uadf8\ub798\uc11c:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\uc218\ucd9c\uc774 \uc904\uc5b4\ub3c4 \ub0b4\uc218\ub85c \ub300\uccb4 \uac00\ub2a5<\/li>\n<li>\ub2e4\ub978 \ub098\ub77c\uc5d0 \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \uc218\ucd9c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc744 \ucc3e\ub294 \uac83\ub3c4 \ube44\uad50\uc801 \uc218\uc6d4<\/li>\n<li>\ud544\uc218 \ubb3c\uc790 \ubd80\uc871 \uc0ac\ud0dc\ub294 \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc74c<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\ubc18\uba74 \ubbf8\uad6d\ucc98\ub7fc \ubb34\uc5ed\uc801\uc790\uac00 \uc2ec\ud55c \ub098\ub77c\ub294?<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\uad6d\ub0b4\uc5d0\uc11c \uc0dd\uc0b0\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294 \uc81c\ud488\ub4e4\uc744 \uc678\uad6d\uc5d0\uc11c \uc0ac\ub4e4\uc5ec\uc57c \ud558\ub294 \uad6c\uc870<\/li>\n<li>\uad00\uc138\uac00 \uc62c\ub77c\uac00\uba74 \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \uae09\ub4f1\ud558\uac70\ub098 \uacf5\uae09\uc774 \ub04a\uae40<\/li>\n<li>\ud2b9\ud788 \ud2b9\uc815 \uc9c0\uc5ed, \uc0b0\uc5c5, \uac00\uc815\uc5d0 \ud070 \ucda9\uaca9\uc744 \uc90c (\uc608: \uc758\uc57d\ud488, \ucc28\ub7c9\uc6a9 \ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4, \ud76c\ud1a0\ub958)<\/li>\n<li>\uac8c\ub2e4\uac00 \ubbf8\uad6d\uc740 \uc678\uad6d \uc790\ubcf8 \uc720\uc785\uc5d0 \uc758\uc874\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc74c.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\uc774\ub7f0 \uc0c1\ud669\uc5d0\uc11c \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \ud589\uc815\ubd80\uac00 \uc77c\ubc29\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uacf5\uae09\ub9dd\uc5d0 \ud070 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uacfc \ube44\uc6a9\uc744 \ubd80\uacfc\ud558\uba74\u00a0\ud574\uc678 \ud22c\uc790\uc790\ub4e4\uc740 \ubbf8\uad6d \uacbd\uc81c\uc758 \uc608\uce21 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uacfc \uc548\uc815\uc131\uc5d0 \uc758\ubb38\uc744 \uac16\uac8c \ub420 \uac83\uc774\uace0, \uacb0\uacfc\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ubbf8\uad6d\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ud22c\uc790 \uac10\uc18c, \uad6d\ucc44 \uae08\ub9ac \uc0c1\uc2b9 \ub4f1\uc758 \ubd80\uc791\uc6a9\uc774 \ub4a4\ub530\ub984.<\/p>\n<h4><\/h4>\n<h4><strong>\ubbf8\uad6d\uc774 \ub354 \ud06c\uac8c \ub2e4\uce5c\ub2e4<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>\uc9c0\uae08 \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \ud589\uc815\ubd80\uac00 \ucd94\uc9c4\ud558\ub294 100% \uc774\uc0c1 \uad00\uc138\ub294 \uc0ac\uc2e4\uc0c1 \uc804\uba74\uc801 \ubb34\uc5ed\uc804\uc7c1\uc5d0 \ud574\ub2f9\ud568.\u00a0\uadf8 \ud53c\ud574\ub294 \uc911\uad6d\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ubbf8\uad6d\uc774 \ub354 \ud07c.\u00a0\ubbf8\uad6d\uc740 \uc911\uad6d\uc0b0 \uc6d0\uc7ac\ub8cc\uc5d0 \uc758\uc874\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uace0,<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\uc758\uc57d\ud488 \uc6d0\ub8cc<\/li>\n<li>\uac00\uc804\u00b7\uc790\ub3d9\ucc28\uc5d0 \ub4e4\uc5b4\uac00\ub294 \uc800\uac00 \ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4<\/li>\n<li>\ubb34\uae30 \uc81c\uc870\uc5d0 \ud544\uc218\uc801\uc778 \ud76c\uc18c \uad11\ubb3c(critical minerals)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\uc774\ub7f0 \ud488\ubaa9\ub4e4\uc758 \uc218\uc785\uc774 \uc911\ub2e8\ub418\uba74 \ubbf8\uad6d\uc740 1970\ub144\ub300 \uc2a4\ud0dc\uadf8\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158(Stagflation), \uc989 \ubb3c\uac00\ub294 \uc624\ub974\uace0, \uacbd\uae30\ub294 \uce68\uccb4\ub418\ub294 \uc774\uc911\uace0\ub97c \uacaa\uac8c \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\uc74c.\u00a0\uc774\ub7f0 \uc0c1\ud669\uc774 \uc624\uba74 \uc5f0\uc900(Fed)\uc774\ub098 \uc758\ud68c\ub3c4 \ubfb0\uc871\ud55c \ub300\uc751\ucc45\uc774 \uc5c6\uc5b4\uc9c0\uace0 \uc2e4\uc5c5\ub960\uc744 \ub9c9\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uc624\ud788\ub824 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc744 \ub354 \uc720\ubc1c\ud574\uc57c \ud560 \uc218\ub3c4 \uc788\uc74c.<\/p>\n<h4><\/h4>\n<h4><strong>\ubb34\uc7a5\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uace0 \uc804\uc7c1\uc744 \uba3c\uc800 \uc2dc\uc791\ud55c \uc148<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>\ube44\uc720\ud558\uc790\uba74, \uc9c0\uae08\uc758 \uad00\uc138\uc804\uc7c1\uc740 \uce68\uacf5\ub2f9\ud560 \uc704\ud5d8\uc774 \uc788\ub294 \ub098\ub77c\uac00 \ubb34\uae30 \uc5c6\uc774 \uba3c\uc800 \uc804\uc7c1\uc744 \uc77c\uc73c\ud0a4\ub294 \uaf34.\u00a0\ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \ud589\uc815\ubd80\ub294 \uc911\uad6d\uc0b0 \ud575\uc2ec \ubb3c\uc790\uc5d0 \uc758\uc874\ud558\uba74\uc11c\ub3c4 \ub300\uccb4 \uacf5\uae09\uc120\ub3c4 \ud655\ubcf4\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uace0, \uc790\uad6d \uc0dd\uc0b0 \uc5ed\ub7c9\ub3c4 \uac16\ucd94\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc740 \ucc44 \ubb34\uc5ed\uc804\uc7c1\uc744 \uc2dc\uc791\ud588\uc74c.\u00a0\uc774\uac74 \uc560\ucd08\uc5d0 \uc790\uc2e0\ub4e4\uc774 \ub9c9\uace0\uc790 \ud558\ub294 \uacbd\uc81c\uc801 \ud53c\ud574\ub97c \uc624\ud788\ub824 \uc790\ucd08\ud558\ub294 \uc704\ud5d8\ud55c \uc804\ub7b5\uc784.<\/p>\n<h4><\/h4>\n<h4><strong>\u2018\ud611\uc0c1 \uce74\ub4dc\u2019\ub77c \ud574\ub3c4, \uacb0\uad6d \ub3c5\uc774 \ub418\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>\uc124\uc0ac \uc774\ubc88 \uad00\uc138 \uc870\uce58\uac00 \ud611\uc0c1\uc744 \uc704\ud55c \uc804\ub7b5\uc801 \uce74\ub4dc\ub77c\uace0 \ud558\ub354\ub77c\ub3c4 \uadf8 \ud6a8\uacfc\ub294 \uc774\uc775\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc190\ud574\uac00 \ub354 \ud074 \uac83\uc784.\u00a0\uc65c\ub0d0\ud558\uba74 \ud611\uc0c1\uc774 \ud6a8\uacfc\ub97c \ub0b4\ub824\uba74 \uc0c1\ub300\uac00 \ub450\ub824\uc6cc\ud560 \ub9cc\ud07c \u2018\uc9c4\uc9dc \ud574\ub97c \uc785\ud790 \uac01\uc624\u2019\ub97c \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc57c \ud558\uace0, \ubbf8\uad6d\uc774 \uc2a4\uc2a4\ub85c\uc5d0\uac8c\ub3c4 \uc190\ud574\uac00 \ub418\ub294 \uc704\ud611\uc744 \uac10\uc218\ud574\uc57c \ud558\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc784. \ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc \uadf8\ub7f0 \uc704\ud611\uc740 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uacfc \uac00\uacc4\uc5d0 \uc9c0\uc18d\uc801\uc778 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc744 \ub0b3\uc744 \uc218\ubc16\uc5d0 \uc5c6\uc74c.<\/p>\n<p>\uadf8 \uacb0\uacfc:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\uad6d\ub0b4\uc678 \ud22c\uc790\uc790 \ubaa8\ub450 \ubbf8\uad6d\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc2e0\ub8b0\ub97c \uc783\uac8c \ub418\uace0<\/li>\n<li>\ubbf8\uad6d \uacbd\uc81c\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ud22c\uc790\ub294 \uc904\uc5b4\ub4e4\uace0<\/li>\n<li>\ud611\uc0c1 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131 \uc790\uccb4\ub3c4 \ub0ae\uc544\uc9d0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\uc0dd\uc0b0 \ub2a5\ub825\uc740 \ucee4\uc9c0\uc9c0 \uc54a\uace0, \uc624\ud788\ub824 \uc911\uad6d\uacfc \ub2e4\ub978 \uad6d\uac00\ub4e4\uc774 \ubbf8\uad6d\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \ub354 \ud070 \uacbd\uc81c\uc801 \uc9c0\ub81b\ub300(leverage)\ub97c \uac16\uac8c \ub418\ub294 \uacb0\uacfc\ub97c \ub0b3\uac8c\ub428.<\/p>\n<h4><\/h4>\n<h4><strong>\ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504\uc758 \ubb34\uc5ed\uc804\uc7c1, \uacbd\uc81c\uc801 \u2018\ubca0\ud2b8\ub0a8 \uc804\uc7c1\u2019 \ub420 \uc218\ub3c4<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>\uc9c0\uae08 \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \ud589\uc815\ubd80\ub294 \uc790\ucd08\ud55c \uacbd\uc81c\uc801 \uc218\ub801\uc5d0 \ube60\uc838\ub4e4\uace0 \uc788\uc74c.\u00a0\uc774\uac74 \ub9d0\ud558\uc790\uba74, \uc120\ud0dd \uac00\ub2a5\ud55c \uc804\uc7c1(war of choice)\uc744 \ubc8c\uc774\uace0\ub294 \ubc97\uc5b4\ub0a0 \uc218 \uc5c6\ub294 \uacbd\uc81c\uc801 \ubca0\ud2b8\ub0a8\uc804\uc7c1(quagmire, \ube60\uc838\ub098\uc624\uae30 \uc5b4\ub824\uc6b4 \uace4\uacbd, \uc218\ub801, \uc9c4\ucc3d \uac19\uc740 \uc0c1\ud669)\uc73c\ub85c \ube60\uc838\ub4dc\ub294 \ubaa8\uc2b5\uacfc \ub2e4\ub97c\ubc14 \uc5c6\uc74c.<\/p>\n<p>\uacb0\uad6d \uc774 \uc804\ub7b5\uc740 \ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \uc2e0\ub8b0\uc131\uacfc \ub2a5\ub825\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uad6d\ub0b4\uc678 \uc2e0\ub8b0\ub97c \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \ubb34\ub108\ub728\ub9ac\ub294 \uacb0\uacfc\ub85c \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c8 \uac83\uc774\uace0, \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \ubaa8\ub450 \uadf8 \uacb0\ub9d0\uc774 \uc5ed\uc0ac\uc5d0\uc11c \uc5b4\ub5bb\uac8c \uae30\ub85d\ub418\uc5c8\ub294\uc9c0 \uc54c\uace0 \uc788\uc74c.<\/p>\n<p>(1\ub2ec\ub7ec=1444\uc6d0)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\ud3b8\uc9d1\uc790 \uc8fc:\ubcf8 \uae00\uc740 \ud3ec\ub9b0\uc5b4\ud398\uc5b4\uc2a4(Foreign Affairs)\uc5d0 \uac8c\uc7ac\ub41c \uc560\ub364 \ud3ec\uc98c(Adam E. Posen)\uc758 \uae30\uace0\ubb38 &#8216;\ubb34\uc5ed\uc804\uc7c1\uc740 \uc9c0\uae30 \uc26c\uc6b4 \uc2f8\uc6c0\uc774\ub2e4(Trade wars are easy to lose)\ub97c \uc694\uc57d \uc815\ub9ac\ud55c \uac83\uc784. \uc560\ub364 \ud3ec\uc98c\uc740 \uc138\uacc4\uc801\uc778 \uad6d\uc81c\uacbd\uc81c\ud559\uc790\ub85c, \ud604\uc7ac \ubbf8\uad6d \ud53c\ud130\uc2a8\uad6d\uc81c\uacbd\uc81c\uc5f0\uad6c\uc18c(PIIE) \uc18c\uc7a5\uc744 \ub9e1\uace0 \uc788\uc74c. \ud558\ubc84\ub4dc\ub300\ud559\uad50\uc5d0\uc11c \uacbd\uc81c\ud559 \ubc15\uc0ac \ud559\uc704\ub97c \ubc1b\uc558\uace0, \ubbf8\uad6d \uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4\uc774\uc0ac\ud68c(FRB) \uc774\ucf54\ub178\ubbf8\uc2a4\ud2b8, \uad6d\uc81c\ud1b5\ud654\uae30\uae08(IMF) \uc790\ubb38\uc5ed, \uc601\uad6d\uc740\ud589(BOE) \uae08\uc735\uc815\ucc45\uc704\uc6d0\ud68c \uc678\ubd80\uc704\uc6d0 \ub4f1\uc744 \uc5ed\uc784\ud588\uc74c. \uac70\uc2dc\uacbd\uc81c, \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45, \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \ubb34\uc5ed \ubc0f \uc911\uad6d \uacbd\uc81c\uc5d0 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":22992,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,612,609,614],"tags":[59,58,2372,4089,38,214],"class_list":{"0":"post-22953","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-sanction","8":"category-usa","9":"category-analysis","10":"category-china","11":"tag-59","12":"tag-58","13":"tag-2372","14":"tag-4089","15":"tag-38","16":"tag-214"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>[\uc2ec\uce35\ubd84\uc11d] \ud53c\ud130\uc2a8 \uacbd\uc81c\uc5f0\uad6c\uc18c\uc7a5 &quot;\ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504\uc758 \u5c0d\u4e2d \uad00\uc138\uc804\uc7c1, \u2018\uacbd\uc81c\uc801 \ubca0\ud2b8\ub0a8\u6230\u2019\ub41c\ub2e4&quot; SanctionLab<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"&quot;\ubbf8\uad6d\uc740 \uc0ac\uc2e4\uc0c1 \uac70\ub798\ud558\ub294 \ubaa8\ub4e0 \ub098\ub77c\uc640\uc758 \ubb34\uc5ed\uc5d0\uc11c \uc218\ucc9c\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc529 \uc190\ud574\ub97c \ubcf4\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \ubb34\uc5ed\uc804\uc7c1\uc740 \uc88b\uc740 \uac83\uc774\uace0, \uc774\uae30\uae30\ub3c4 \uc27d\ub2e4.&quot;\u00a0 \u2014 2018\ub144 \ub3c4\ub110\ub4dc \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \ubbf8\uad6d \ub300\ud1b5\ub839\uc758 \ud2b8\uc717 \uc911. \uc9c0\ub09c 8\uc77c(\ud604\uc9c0\uc2dc\uac01) \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \ud589\uc815\ubd80\uac00 \uc911\uad6d\uc0b0 \uc218\uc785\ud488\uc5d0 100%\ub97c \ucd08\uacfc\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.sanctionlab.com\/?p=22953\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ko_KR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"[\uc2ec\uce35\ubd84\uc11d] \ud53c\ud130\uc2a8 \uacbd\uc81c\uc5f0\uad6c\uc18c\uc7a5 &quot;\ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504\uc758 \u5c0d\u4e2d \uad00\uc138\uc804\uc7c1, \u2018\uacbd\uc81c\uc801 \ubca0\ud2b8\ub0a8\u6230\u2019\ub41c\ub2e4&quot; SanctionLab\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"&quot;\ubbf8\uad6d\uc740 \uc0ac\uc2e4\uc0c1 \uac70\ub798\ud558\ub294 \ubaa8\ub4e0 \ub098\ub77c\uc640\uc758 \ubb34\uc5ed\uc5d0\uc11c \uc218\ucc9c\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc529 \uc190\ud574\ub97c \ubcf4\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \ubb34\uc5ed\uc804\uc7c1\uc740 \uc88b\uc740 \uac83\uc774\uace0, \uc774\uae30\uae30\ub3c4 \uc27d\ub2e4.&quot;\u00a0 \u2014 2018\ub144 \ub3c4\ub110\ub4dc \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \ubbf8\uad6d \ub300\ud1b5\ub839\uc758 \ud2b8\uc717 \uc911. \uc9c0\ub09c 8\uc77c(\ud604\uc9c0\uc2dc\uac01) \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \ud589\uc815\ubd80\uac00 \uc911\uad6d\uc0b0 \uc218\uc785\ud488\uc5d0 100%\ub97c \ucd08\uacfc\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.sanctionlab.com\/?p=22953\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"SanctionLab\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-04-13T21:04:11+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-04-20T23:31:37+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.sanctionlab.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/be6fb7e0-7254-43e6-bf6a-4cae02a0a416.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1024\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1024\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"\ud0dc\uc0c1\ucca0 \uc120\uc784 \ucee8\uc124\ud134\ud2b8 \ub274\uc695 \uc8fc \ubcc0\ud638\uc0ac\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\uae00\uc4f4\uc774\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"\ud0dc\uc0c1\ucca0 \uc120\uc784 \ucee8\uc124\ud134\ud2b8 \ub274\uc695 \uc8fc \ubcc0\ud638\uc0ac\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"\uc608\uc0c1 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