{"id":54000,"date":"2026-03-01T15:45:53","date_gmt":"2026-03-01T06:45:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sanctionlab.com\/?p=54000"},"modified":"2026-03-03T09:17:57","modified_gmt":"2026-03-03T00:17:57","slug":"%ec%a0%84%eb%ac%b8%ea%b0%80%eb%93%a4-%ed%98%b8%eb%a5%b4%eb%ac%b4%ec%a6%88-%eb%b4%89%ec%87%84-%ed%95%9c-%eb%8b%ac-%eb%84%98%ec%9c%bc%eb%a9%b4-%ec%9c%a0%ea%b0%80-%eb%b0%b0%eb%9f%b4%eb%8b%b9-350","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sanctionlab.com\/?p=54000","title":{"rendered":"\uc804\ubb38\uac00\ub4e4 “\ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ubd09\uc1c4, \ud55c \ub2ec \ub118\uc73c\uba74 \uc720\uac00 \ubc30\ub7f4\ub2f9 350\ub2ec\ub7ec\ub3c4 \uac00\ub2a5”"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

| \uc804\ubb38\uac00\ub4e4\uc758 \ubd84\uc11d…\ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \uc804\uc138\uacc4 \uc6d0\uc720 \ubb34\uc5ed\ub7c9\uc758 20% \ucc28\uc9c0
\n| \uc77c\uc2dc\uc801 \uad50\ub780\uc77c \ub54c \ubc30\ub7f4\ub2f9 100\ub2ec\ub7ec, 2~4\uc8fc\uc77c \ub54c 150\ub2ec\ub7ec \uac00\ub2a5
\n| 1\uac1c\uc6d4 \uc774\uc0c1 \ubd09\uc1c4\uc2dc \uc2dc\uc2a4\ud15c \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\ub85c…200\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc774\uc0c1\ub3c4 \uac00\ub2a5<\/h3>\n

\ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ud574\ud611\uc740 \uc804 \uc138\uacc4 \ud574\uc0c1 \uc6d0\uc720 \ubb34\uc5ed\ub7c9\uc758 \uc57d 20~30%, LNG \ubb34\uc5ed\uc758 20%\uac00 \ud1b5\uacfc\ud558\ub294 \ud575\uc2ec \ud1b5\ub85c\uc784. \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ud574\ud611\uc774 \ubd09\uc1c4\ub420 \uacbd\uc6b0, \uad6d\uc81c\uc720\uac00\ub294 \ub2e8\uc21c\ud55c \u2018\uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uc801 \ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4\u2019 \uc218\uc900\uc744 \ub118\uc5b4 \uad6c\uc870\uc801 \uacf5\uae09 \uc1fc\ud06c \uad6d\uba74\uc73c\ub85c \uc9c4\uc785\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud07c. \ubbf8\uad6d \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0\uc815\ubcf4\uccad(EIA)\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 \ud558\ub8e8 \uc57d 2,000\ub9cc \ubc30\ub7f4\uc774 \uc774 \uc881\uc740 \uc218\ub85c\ub97c \ud1b5\uacfc\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \ub300\uccb4 \uacbd\ub85c\ub294 \uc81c\ud55c\uc801\uc784. \uc989, \ubd09\uc1c4\ub294 \ub2e8\uc21c\ud55c \ub274\uc2a4 \uc774\ubca4\ud2b8\uac00 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c \uc2e4\ubb3c \uacf5\uae09 \uccb4\uacc4 \uc790\uccb4\ub97c \ud754\ub4dc\ub294 \uc0ac\uac74\uc784.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\uc804\ubb38\uac00\ub4e4\uc740 \ubd09\uc1c4 \uac15\ub3c4\uc640 \uc9c0\uc18d \uae30\uac04\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uc720\uac00 \uacbd\ub85c\uac00 \ub69c\ub837\ud558\uac8c \ub2ec\ub77c\uc9c8 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\uace0 \uc788\uc74c. \uc774 \uc804\ubb38\uac00\ub4e4\uc758 \uacac\ud574\ub294 \uc774\ubc88 \uc0ac\ud0dc \uc9c1\ud6c4 \ubc1c\ud45c\ub41c \uac83\ub3c4 \uc788\uace0, \uc9c0\ub09c\ud574 \uc774\ub780 \uc704\uae30 \uc2dc\uc5d0 \ub098\uc628 \uac83\ub4e4\ub3c4 \uc788\uc74c.<\/p>\n

1\ub2e8\uacc4: \ubd80\ubd84\u00b7\uc77c\uc2dc\uc801 \uad50\ub780 \u201c100\ub2ec\ub7ec \ud14c\uc2a4\ud2b8\u201d \uac00\ub2a5 \uad6c\uac04<\/strong><\/h6>\n

\uc218\uc77c\uc5d0\uc11c 1\uc8fc \ub0b4\uc678\uc758 \uc0ac\uc2e4\uc0c1 \ubd09\uc1c4(\ud1b5\ud56d \uae09\uac10, \ubcf4\ud5d8 \uac70\ubd80, \uc120\ubc15 \ud68c\ud56d \ub4f1) \uc0c1\ud669\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ube0c\ub80c\ud2b8\uc720\uac00 90~110\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc218\uc900\uae4c\uc9c0 \ub2e8\uae30 \uae09\ub4f1\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ub192\ub2e4\ub294 \uc804\ub9dd\uc774 \uc6b0\uc138\ud568.<\/p>\n

\uc528\ud2f0\uadf8\ub8f9(Citigroup) \uc560\ub110\ub9ac\uc2a4\ud2b8 \uc564\uc11c\ub2c8 \uc720\uc5d4(Anthony Yuen)\uacfc \uc5d0\ub9ad \ub9ac(Eric Lee)\ub294 “\ud574\ud611\uc774 \ub2eb\ud788\uba74 \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \uae09\uaca9\ud788 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc73c\ub098, \uc7ac\uac1c \ub178\ub825\uc774 \uc9d1\uc911\ub420 \uac83\uc774\ubbc0\ub85c \uc7a5\uae30 \uc9c0\uc18d \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc740 \ub0ae\ub2e4”\uace0 \ubd84\uc11d<\/a>\ud568. \uc774\ub294 ‘\uae09\ub4f1 \ud6c4 \ub418\ub3cc\ub9bc’ \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\uc5d0 \ubb34\uac8c\ub97c \ub454 \ubc1c\uc5b8\uc784.<\/p>\n

\ub9ac\uc2a4\ud0c0\ub4dc \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0(Rystad Energy)\ub294 \uae34\uc7a5 \uace0\uc870\ub9cc\uc73c\ub85c\ub3c4 \ube0c\ub80c\ud2b8\uac00 20\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc548\ud30e \uc810\ud504\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ud3c9\uac00<\/a>\ud568. \uc774\ub294 \uc2e4\uc81c \ubd09\uc1c4\uac00 \uc544\ub2c8\ub354\ub77c\ub3c4 \u2018\ud1b5\ud56d \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\u2019\uac00 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \uc989\uac01 \ubc18\uc601\ub418\ub294 \uad6c\uc870\uc784\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud568.<\/p>\n

\ubc14\ud074\ub808\uc774\uc988(Barclays) \ub610\ud55c \ucda9\ub3cc \uac15\ub3c4\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \ube0c\ub80c\ud2b8\uac00 100\ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \uc2dc\ud5d8\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \uc5b8\uae09<\/a>\ud568.<\/p>\n

\ubcf8\uc9c8\uc740 ‘\ubb3c\ub9ac\uc801 \uacf5\uae09 \ubd80\uc871’\ubcf4\ub2e4\ub294 ‘\ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c \ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4’\uc774 \uae09\uaca9\ud788 \uc62c\ub77c\uac00\ub294 \uac83\uc784. \uc2e4\uc81c \ubd09\uc1c4 \uc120\uc5b8\uc774 \uc5c6\ub354\ub77c\ub3c4 \u25b2\ubcf4\ud5d8\ub8cc \uae09\ub4f1 \u25b2\uc120\ubc15 \ud68c\ud56d \u25b2\ud1b5\ud56d \uc9c0\uc5f0\uc774 \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud558\uba74 \uccb4\uac10 \uacf5\uae09\uc774 \uc904\uc5b4\ub4dc\ub294 \ud6a8\uacfc\uac00 \ub098\ud0c0\ub0a8. \ub2e4\ub9cc \uc7ac\uac1c \uc2e0\ud638\uac00 \ub098\uc624\uba74 \ube60\ub974\uac8c \uc548\uc815\ub420 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\ub3c4 \uc874\uc7ac\ud568.\u00a02019\ub144 \uc0ac\uc6b0\ub514 \uc544\ube0c\uce74\uc774\ud06c(Abqaiq) \ud53c\uaca9 \ub2f9\uc2dc\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uc720\uac00\ub294 \ud558\ub8e8 \ub9cc\uc5d0 \uae09\ub4f1\ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc \ubcf5\uad6c \uae30\ub300\uac00 \ud615\uc131\ub418\uba74\uc11c \ube60\ub974\uac8c \ub418\ub3cc\ub9bc\uc774 \ub098\ud0c0\ub09c \ubc14 \uc788\uc74c. \ub2e8\uae30 \ucda9\uaca9\uc740 \ud06c\ub418 \uc9c0\uc18d\uc131\uc740 \uc81c\ud55c\uc801\uc77c \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc804\ub840\uc784.<\/p>\n

2\ub2e8\uacc4: \uc218\uc8fc \uc9c0\uc18d \uad50\ub780 \u201c150\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc0c1\ub2e8\u201d \uc5f4\ub9ac\ub294 \uad6c\uac04<\/strong><\/h6>\n

\ubb38\uc81c\ub294 2~4\uc8fc \uc774\uc0c1 \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ud1b5\ud56d\uc774 \ubcf8\uaca9\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc81c\ud55c\ub418\ub294 \uacbd\uc6b0\uc784. \uc774\ub54c\ub294 \ud558\ub8e8 1000\ub9cc \ubc30\ub7f4 \uc774\uc0c1 \uccb4\uac10 \ucc28\uc9c8\uc774 \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \ub2e8\uae30 \ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4\uc774 \uc544\ub2cc \uad6c\uc870\uc801 \uacf5\uae09 \uc1fc\ud06c\ub85c \uc804\ud658\ub428.<\/p>\n

\uace8\ub4dc\ub9cc\uc0ad\uc2a4(Goldman Sachs)\ub294 \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ud1b5\uacfc \ubb3c\ub7c9\uc774 \uc808\ubc18 \uc218\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \uac10\uc18c\ud558\ub294 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\uc5d0\uc11c \ube0c\ub80c\ud2b8 110\ub2ec\ub7ec \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \uc81c\uc2dc<\/a>\ud568.<\/p>\n

\uc625\uc2a4\ud37c\ub4dc \uc774\ucf54\ub178\ubbf9\uc2a4(Oxford Economics)\ub294 \uc9c0\uc18d\uc801 \ubd09\uc1c4\uac00 \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud560 \uacbd\uc6b0 140\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc218\uc900\ub3c4 \uc5f4\ub824 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubd84\uc11d<\/a>\ud568.<\/p>\n

JP\ubaa8\uac74(JPMorgan)\uc740 \ubd09\uc1c4\uac00 \ub2e8\uae30\uac04\uc5d0 \uadf8\uce58\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc744 \uacbd\uc6b0 \u201c\uc9c0\uc18d\uc801 \uc720\uac00 \ucda9\uaca9(sustained oil price shock)\u201d\uc774 \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \uacbd\uace0<\/a>\ud568. \uc774\ub294 \uac00\uaca9 \uae09\ub4f1\uc774 \ub2e8\ubc1c\uc131 \uc774\ubca4\ud2b8\uac00 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c \uac70\uc2dc\uacbd\uc81c \uc804\ubc18\uc5d0 \ucda9\uaca9\uc744 \uc8fc\ub294 \ub808\uc9d0 \ubcc0\ud654\uc784\uc744 \uc758\ubbf8\ud568.<\/p>\n

2~4\uc8fc \uad6c\uac04\uc774 \uc704\ud5d8\ud55c \uc774\uc720\ub294 \uc2e4\ubb3c \uc7ac\uace0\uc640 \ubb3c\ub958 \ud55c\uacc4\uac00 \ub178\ucd9c\ub418\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc784. 1\uc8fc \uc774\ub0b4\uc5d0\ub294 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354\uc640 \uc815\uc720\uc0ac\uac00 \uc7ac\uace0\u00b7\uc6b4\uc1a1 \uc2a4\ucf00\uc904\ub85c \ubc84\ud2f8 \uc218 \uc788\uc74c. \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 3\uc8fc \uc774\uc0c1 \uc9c0\uc18d\ub418\uba74 \uc544\uc2dc\uc544 \uc218\uc785\uad6d\uc758 \uc815\uc720 \uac00\ub3d9\ub960 \uc870\uc815\uc774 \ubd88\uac00\ud53c\ud558\uba70, \ud718\ubc1c\uc720\u00b7\uacbd\uc720\u00b7\ud56d\uacf5\uc720 \uac00\uaca9 \uae09\ub4f1\uc73c\ub85c \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c8 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud07c.\u00a0\uc774 \ub2e8\uacc4\ubd80\ud130\ub294 \uc720\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc774 \uace7\ubc14\ub85c \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc7ac\uc810\ud654\ub85c \uc5f0\uacb0\ub428. \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac \uacbd\ub85c\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \uc904 \uc218 \uc788\uc74c.<\/p>\n

\uacfc\uac70 1990\ub144 \uac78\ud504\uc804 \ub2f9\uc2dc\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uc2e4\ubb3c \uacf5\uae09 \uc0c1\uc2e4\uc774 \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud558\uc790 \uc720\uac00\ub294 \uc218\uac1c\uc6d4 \ub0b4 \ub450 \ubc30 \uc774\uc0c1 \uae09\ub4f1\ud55c \uc804\ub840\uac00 \uc788\uc74c. \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988\ub294 \uadf8\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub354 \uc9d1\uc911\ub41c \ucd08\ud06c\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8\uc784.<\/p>\n

3\ub2e8\uacc4: 1\uac1c\uc6d4 \uc774\uc0c1 \uc7a5\uae30 \uc804\uba74 \ubd09\uc1c4 \u201c\uadf9\ub2e8\uc801\uc73c\ub85c 350\ub2ec\ub7ec\ub3c4 \uac00\ub2a5\u201d<\/strong><\/h6>\n

\uc644\uc804 \ubd09\uc1c4\uac00 1\uac1c\uc6d4 \uc774\uc0c1 \uc9c0\uc18d\ub420 \uacbd\uc6b0 \uc0c1\ud669\uc740 \uc804\ud600 \ub2e4\ub978 \ucc28\uc6d0\uc73c\ub85c \uc804\uac1c\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\uc74c. \ud558\ub8e8 1700~2000\ub9cc \ubc30\ub7f4 \uaddc\ubaa8\uc758 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uacf5\uae09\uc774 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubc1b\ub294 \uc0c1\ud669\uc774 \uc7a5\uae30\ud654\ub418\uba74, \uc720\uac00\ub294 150~200\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc774\uc0c1 \uad6c\uac04\uc73c\ub85c \uc9c4\uc785\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc804\ub9dd\uc774 \uc81c\uae30\ub428.<\/p>\n

SEB\uc740\ud589(SEB Bank) \uc218\uc11d \uc0c1\ud488 \uc560\ub110\ub9ac\uc2a4\ud2b8 \ube44\uc57c\ub974\ub124 \uc2e4\ub370\ub85c\ud504(Bjarne Schieldrop)\ub294 \uc7a5\uae30 \ubd09\uc1c4\uc758 \uacbd\uc6b0 \uadf9\ub2e8\uc801\uc73c\ub85c 350\ub2ec\ub7ec\uae4c\uc9c0\ub3c4 \uac70\ub860<\/a>\ud568. \uc774\ub294 \ud655\ub960\uc740 \ub0ae\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uacf5\uae09 \ucc28\uc9c8\uc774 \uadf9\ub2e8\ud654\ub420 \uacbd\uc6b0 \ube44\uc120\ud615\uc801 \uac00\uaca9 \ud3ed\ub4f1\uc774 \ub098\ud0c0\ub0a0 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \u2018\ud14c\uc77c \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\u2019 \uacbd\uace0\uc784.<\/p>\n

JP\ubaa8\uac74 \ub610\ud55c \ucd5c\uc545\uc758 \uacbd\uc6b0 120~130\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc774\uc0c1\uc758 \uae09\ub4f1\uc744 \ubc30\uc81c\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc73c\uba70, \ubd09\uc1c4\uac00 \uc9c0\uc5ed\uc804\uc73c\ub85c \ud655\uc0b0\ub420 \uacbd\uc6b0 \uc9c0\uc18d\uc801 \uac00\uaca9 \ucda9\uaca9\uc774 \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubd84\uc11d<\/a>\ud568.<\/p>\n

\uc774 \ub2e8\uacc4\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \u2018\uc720\uac00 \uc218\uc900\u2019\ubcf4\ub2e4 \u2018\uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uc2dc\uc2a4\ud15c \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\u2019\uac00 \ud575\uc2ec \ubcc0\uc218\uc784. 200\ub2ec\ub7ec\uc5d0 \uadfc\uc811\ud560 \uacbd\uc6b0 \uc218\uc694 \ud30c\uad34(demand destruction)\uac00 \ubcf8\uaca9\ud654\ub418\uace0, \uc2e0\ud765\uad6d \uacbd\uc0c1\uc218\uc9c0 \uc545\ud654, \ud1b5\ud654 \uc57d\uc138, \uae08\uc735\uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uae09\ub4f1\uc774 \ub3d9\ubc18\ub420 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud07c.\u00a0\ub610\ud55c \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988\ub294 \uc6d0\uc720\ubfd0 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c \uce74\ud0c0\ub974 LNG \uc218\uc1a1\ub85c\uc774\uae30\ub3c4 \ud568. \uc7a5\uae30 \ubd09\uc1c4 \uc2dc \uac00\uc2a4 \uac00\uaca9 \uae09\ub4f1\uc774 \ub3d9\ubc18\ub420 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \uc774\ub294 \uc720\ub7fd\u00b7\uc544\uc2dc\uc544 \uc804\ub825 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc5f0\uc1c4 \ucda9\uaca9\uc744 \uc904 \uc218 \uc788\uc74c.<\/p>\n

1980\ub144\ub300 \uc774\ub780-\uc774\ub77c\ud06c \u2018\ud0f1\ucee4\uc804\u2019 \ub2f9\uc2dc\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uacf5\uaca9\uc740 \ube48\ubc88\ud588\uc73c\ub098 \uc644\uc804 \ubd09\uc1c4\ub294 \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc558\uc74c. \ub9cc\uc57d \uc774\ubc88\uc5d0 \uc2e4\uc81c \uc7a5\uae30 \ubd09\uc1c4\uac00 \ud604\uc2e4\ud654\ub41c\ub2e4\uba74, \uc774\ub294 \uacfc\uac70 \uc0ac\ub840\uc640\ub294 \ucc28\uc6d0\uc774 \ub2e4\ub978 \ucda9\uaca9\uc784.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

| \uc804\ubb38\uac00\ub4e4\uc758 \ubd84\uc11d…\ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \uc804\uc138\uacc4 \uc6d0\uc720 \ubb34\uc5ed\ub7c9\uc758 20% \ucc28\uc9c0 | \uc77c\uc2dc\uc801 \uad50\ub780\uc77c \ub54c \ubc30\ub7f4\ub2f9 100\ub2ec\ub7ec, 2~4\uc8fc\uc77c \ub54c 150\ub2ec\ub7ec \uac00\ub2a5 | 1\uac1c\uc6d4 \uc774\uc0c1 \ubd09\uc1c4\uc2dc \uc2dc\uc2a4\ud15c \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\ub85c…200\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc774\uc0c1\ub3c4 \uac00\ub2a5 \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ud574\ud611\uc740 \uc804 \uc138\uacc4 \ud574\uc0c1 \uc6d0\uc720 \ubb34\uc5ed\ub7c9\uc758 \uc57d 20~30%, LNG \ubb34\uc5ed\uc758 20%\uac00 \ud1b5\uacfc\ud558\ub294 \ud575\uc2ec \ud1b5\ub85c\uc784. \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ud574\ud611\uc774 \ubd09\uc1c4\ub420 \uacbd\uc6b0, \uad6d\uc81c\uc720\uac00\ub294 \ub2e8\uc21c\ud55c \u2018\uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uc801 \ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4\u2019 \uc218\uc900\uc744 \ub118\uc5b4 \uad6c\uc870\uc801 \uacf5\uae09 \uc1fc\ud06c \uad6d\uba74\uc73c\ub85c 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