{"id":67230,"date":"2026-07-24T01:30:41","date_gmt":"2026-07-23T16:30:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sanctionlab.com\/?p=67230"},"modified":"2026-07-26T07:58:26","modified_gmt":"2026-07-25T22:58:26","slug":"ubs-%ed%8a%b8%eb%9f%bc%ed%94%84-%ea%b4%80%ec%84%b8-%ec%a0%95%ec%b1%85-%ec%9e%84%ec%8b%9c-%ec%a1%b0%ec%b9%98%ec%97%90%ec%84%9c-%ec%9e%a5%ea%b8%b0-%ec%b2%b4%ea%b3%84%eb%a1%9c-%ec%a0%84%ed%99%98","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sanctionlab.com\/?p=67230","title":{"rendered":"UBS &#8220;\ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \uad00\uc138 \uc815\ucc45, \uc784\uc2dc \uc870\uce58\uc5d0\uc11c \uc7a5\uae30 \uccb4\uacc4\ub85c \uc804\ud658&#8221;"},"content":{"rendered":"<h3 data-start=\"0\" data-end=\"200\">| \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504, \u52a0 \uc218\uc785\ud488\uc5d0 50% \uad00\uc138 \ubd80\uacfc&#8230; &#8216;301\uc870&#8217; \uad00\uc138\ub3c4 \uc900\ube44 \uc911<br \/>\n| UBS &#8220;\uc2e4\ud6a8\uad00\uc138\uc728 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uc81c\ud55c\uc801\u2026 \uae30\uc5c5 \uc2e4\uc801\uc774 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ud5a5\ubc29 \uc88c\uc6b0&#8221;<\/h3>\n<p class=\"PDq2pG_selectionAnchorContainer\" data-start=\"0\" data-end=\"200\">\ub3c4\ub110\ub4dc \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \ubbf8\uad6d \ub300\ud1b5\ub839\uc774 \uce90\ub098\ub2e4\uc0b0 \uc218\uc785\ud488\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 50% \uad00\uc138\ub97c \ubd80\uacfc\ud558\uaca0\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1c\ud45c\ud558\uba74\uc11c \ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \uad00\uc138\uc815\ucc45\uc774 \ub2e4\uc2dc \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \ud575\uc2ec \ubcc0\uc218\ub85c \ub5a0\uc624\ub974\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 21\uc77c(\ud604\uc9c0\uc2dc\uac01) \uc2a4\uc704\uc2a4 \uc720\uba85 \ud22c\uc790\uc740\ud589 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ubs.com\/global\/en\/wealthmanagement\/insights\/marketnews\/article.3559467.html\">UBS\uac00 \ubd84\uc11d<\/a>\ud588\uc74c. \uc774\ubc88 \uc870\uce58\ub294 \ubbf8\uad6d \uc5f0\ubc29\ub300\ubc95\uc6d0\uc774 \uc9c0\ub09c 2\uc6d4 \uad6d\uc81c\ube44\uc0c1\uacbd\uc81c\uad8c\ud55c\ubc95(IEEPA)\uc744 \uadfc\uac70\ub85c \ud55c \uae30\uc874 \uad00\uc138\ub97c \ubb34\ud6a8\ub77c\uace0 \ud310\ub2e8\ud55c \uc774\ud6c4, \ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc548\uc815\uc801\uc778 \ubc95\uc801 \uadfc\uac70\ub97c \ub9c8\ub828\ud558\ub824\ub294 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc784\uc758 \uc5f0\uc7a5\uc120\uc73c\ub85c \ubd84\uc11d\ub428.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"202\" data-end=\"387\">\ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \ub300\ud1b5\ub839\uc740 \uc774\ubc88\uc5d0 \uce90\ub098\ub2e4\uc5d0 \uad00\uc138\ub97c \ubd80\uacfc\ud558\ub294 \uacfc\uc815\uc5d0\uc11c 1930\ub144 \uad00\uc138\ubc95(Tariff Act of 1930) \uc81c338\uc870\ub97c \uac70\uc758 100\ub144 \ub9cc\uc5d0 \ucc98\uc74c\uc73c\ub85c \uc801\uc6a9\ud588\uc74c. \ubbf8\uad6d\uc0b0 \uc790\ub3d9\ucc28\uc640 \uc8fc\ub958, \uc720\uc81c\ud488 \ub4f1\uc774 \uce90\ub098\ub2e4\uc5d0\uc11c \ucc28\ubcc4\ubc1b\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc744 \uc774\uc720\ub85c \ub4e4\uc5c8\ub294\ub370, \uc0c8 \uad00\uc138\ub294 30\uc77c \ud6c4\ubd80\ud130 \uc2dc\ud589\ub420 \uc608\uc815\uc784. \ubcf8 \uad00\uc138\ub294 \uc720\uc81c\ud488\uacfc \uac00\uad6c, \ub09a\uc2ef\ub300, \uc885\uc790, \uc758\ub958, \uac00\ubc1c \ub4f1 \ub2e4\uc591\ud55c \ud488\ubaa9\uc744 \ub300\uc0c1\uc73c\ub85c \ud568.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"389\" data-end=\"547\">\ub2e4\ub9cc UBS\ub294 \uc774\ubc88 50% \uad00\uc138\uac00 \uc2e4\uc81c \uc7a5\uae30\uac04 \uc720\uc9c0\ub420 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc740 \ub192\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub2e4\uace0 \ubd24\uc74c. \uc2dc\ud589\uae4c\uc9c0 30\uc77c\uc758 \uc720\uc608\uae30\uac04\uc774 \uc788\uace0 \ubc95\uc801 \ub17c\ub780\ub3c4 \ub0a8\uc544 \uc788\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc784. \ub610\ud55c \uc774\ubc88 \uc870\uce58\ub294 \ubbf8\uad6d\u00b7\uce90\ub098\ub2e4\u00b7\uba55\uc2dc\ucf54 \ubb34\uc5ed\ud611\uc815(USMCA) \uc7ac\uac80\ud1a0 \uacfc\uc815\uc5d0\uc11c \ud611\uc0c1\ub825\uc744 \ub192\uc774\uae30 \uc704\ud55c \uc555\ubc15 \uce74\ub4dc\uc77c \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\ub3c4 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubd84\uc11d\ud588\uc74c.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"549\" data-end=\"828\">\ubc18\uba74, \ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc9c0\uc18d\uc801\uc778 \uad00\uc138\uc815\ucc45\uc740 \ub2e4\ub978 \ubc95\uc801 \uadfc\uac70\ub97c \ud1b5\ud574 \ucd94\uc9c4\ub420 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud06c\ub2e4\uace0 \uc804\ub9dd\ud588\uc74c. \ud604\uc7ac \ubbf8\uad6d\uc740 \uc5f0\ubc29\ub300\ubc95\uc6d0 \ud310\uacb0 \uc9c1\ud6c4 \uc784\uc2dc \uc870\uce58\ub85c 1974\ub144 \ubb34\uc5ed\ubc95 \uc81c122\uc870\ub97c \ud65c\uc6a9\ud574 10% &#8216;\uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uad00\uc138&#8217;\ub97c \uc801\uc6a9\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub294\ub370, \uc774 \uc870\uce58\ub294 7\uc6d4 24\uc77c \uc885\ub8cc\ub420 \uc608\uc815\uc784.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"549\" data-end=\"828\">\uc774\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \ubbf8\uad6d \ubb34\uc5ed\ub300\ud45c\ubd80(USTR)\ub294 \uc9c0\ub09c 2\uc6d4 \uc774\ud6c4 \uc81c301\uc870\ub97c \uadfc\uac70\ub85c \uc5ec\ub7ec \uc870\uc0ac\ub97c \uc9c4\ud589\ud558\uba70 \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \uad00\uc138 \uccb4\uacc4\ub97c \uc900\ube44\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc74c. \uc2e4\uc81c\ub85c \uc77c\ubd80 \ube0c\ub77c\uc9c8\uc0b0 \uc81c\ud488\uc5d0\ub294 \uc81c301\uc870\uc5d0 \ub530\ub978 25% \uad00\uc138\uac00 \uc801\uc6a9\ub420 \uc608\uc815\uc784.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"830\" data-end=\"1024\">UBS\ub294 \ub2e4\uc74c \ub2e8\uacc4\ub85c \ubbf8\uad6d \uc815\ubd80\uac00 \uc81c301\uc870\ub97c \ud65c\uc6a9\ud574 \uc57d 60\uac1c \uad6d\uac00\uc640 \uc9c0\uc5ed\uc744 \ub300\uc0c1\uc73c\ub85c 10~12.5% \uc218\uc900\uc758 \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \uad00\uc138\ub97c \ubc1c\ud45c\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud588\uc74c. \uba85\ubaa9\uc0c1\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 \uac15\uc81c\ub178\ub3d9\uc73c\ub85c \uc0dd\uc0b0\ub41c \uc81c\ud488 \uc218\uc785\uc744 \ubb38\uc81c \uc0bc\ub294 \uc870\uce58\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc774\ub4e4 \uad6d\uac00\uac00 \ubbf8\uad6d \uc804\uccb4 \uc218\uc785\uc758 99%\ub97c \ucc28\uc9c0\ud558\ub294 \ub9cc\ud07c \uc0ac\uc2e4\uc0c1 \uac70\uc758 \ubaa8\ub4e0 \uc218\uc785\ud488\uc5d0 \uc801\uc6a9\ub418\ub294 \uae30\ubcf8\uad00\uc138 \uc5ed\ud560\uc744 \ud558\uac8c \ub420 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubd84\uc11d\ud588\uc74c.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1026\" data-end=\"1296\">\uc5ec\uae30\uc5d0 \ub354\ud574 \uc62c\ud574 \uc548\uc5d0\ub294 \ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \uc8fc\uc694 \uad50\uc5ed\uad6d 16\uac1c\uad6d\uc744 \ub300\uc0c1\uc73c\ub85c \ub610 \ub2e4\ub978 \uc81c301\uc870 \uad00\uc138\uac00 \ucd94\uc9c4\ub420 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\ub3c4 \uc81c\uae30\ud588\uc74c. \uc774\ubc88\uc5d0\ub294 \uc81c\uc870\uc5c5 \uacfc\uc789\uc0dd\uc0b0 \ub2a5\ub825\uc774 \ubbf8\uad6d \uc0b0\uc5c5\uc5d0 \ud53c\ud574\ub97c \uc900\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc744 \uadfc\uac70\ub85c \uc0bc\uc744 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud588\uc74c.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1026\" data-end=\"1296\">\ub2e4\ub9cc \uad6d\uac00\ubcc4 \ud53c\ud574 \uc815\ub3c4\uac00 \ub2e4\ub974\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0 \uad00\uc138\uc728\ub3c4 \uad6d\uac00\ub9c8\ub2e4 \ucc28\ub4f1 \uc801\uc6a9\ub420 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \uc124\uba85\ud588\uc74c. \ud2b9\ud788 \uc911\uad6d\uc740 \ud76c\ud1a0\ub958 \ub4f1 \ud575\uc2ec\uad11\ubb3c \uc218\ucd9c\ud1b5\uc81c\ub85c \ub9de\ub300\uc751\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \uace0\ub824\ud574\uc57c \ud558\uace0, \ub2e4\ub978 \uad6d\uac00\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574\uc11c\ub294 \ucd94\uac00 \ubb34\uc5ed\ud611\uc0c1\uc744 \uc774\ub04c\uc5b4\ub0b4\uae30 \uc704\ud55c \ud611\uc0c1 \uc218\ub2e8\uc73c\ub85c \ud65c\uc6a9\ub420 \uc218\ub3c4 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubd84\uc11d\ud588\uc74c.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1298\" data-end=\"1541\">\uadf8\ub807\ub2e4\uba74 \ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \uad00\uc138 \uc218\uc900\uc740 \uc5bc\ub9c8\ub098 \ub192\uc544\uc9c8\uae4c. UBS\ub294 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uacfc \uc0dd\ud65c\ube44 \ubd80\ub2f4\uc774 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \ud070 \uc0c1\ud669\uc5d0\uc11c \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \ud589\uc815\ubd80\uac00 \uc9c0\ub098\uce58\uac8c \ub192\uc740 \uad00\uc138\ub97c \ubd80\uacfc\ud558\uae30\ub294 \uc27d\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc744 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc804\ub9dd\ud588\uc74c. \uad00\uc138\uac00 \ub192\uc544\uc9c8\uc218\ub85d \uacb0\uad6d \uc18c\ube44\uc790 \ubd80\ub2f4\ub3c4 \ucee4\uc9c8 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \uc788\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc784. \uc774\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uc62c\ud574 \ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \uc2e4\ud6a8\uad00\uc138\uc728\uc740 \ud604\uc7ac \uc57d 10.4%\uc5d0\uc11c 10~15% \uc218\uc900 \ubc94\uc704 \uc548\uc5d0\uc11c \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc77c \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud588\uace0, \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc77c\uac01\uc5d0\uc11c \uc6b0\ub824\ud558\ub294 \uac83\ucc98\ub7fc \uae09\uaca9\ud55c \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc740 \ud06c\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub2e4\uace0 \ud310\ub2e8\ud588\uc74c.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1543\" data-end=\"1754\">\uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc601\ud5a5\ub3c4 \uc81c\ud55c\uc801\uc77c \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ub0b4\ub2e4\ubd24\uc74c. \ucd5c\uadfc \ubc1c\ud45c\ub41c \uacbd\uc81c\uc9c0\ud45c\ub97c \ubcf4\uba74 \uad00\uc138 \uc778\uc0c1\uc5d0 \ub530\ub978 \uc0c1\ud488 \uac00\uaca9 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \ud6a8\uacfc\ub294 \uc0c1\ub2f9 \ubd80\ubd84 \uc774\ubbf8 \ubc18\uc601\ub410\uace0, \ucd5c\uadfc 3\uac1c\uc6d4 \ub3d9\uc548 \uadfc\uc6d0 \uc0c1\ud488 \uac1c\uc778\uc18c\ube44\uc9c0\ucd9c(Core Goods PCE) \ubb3c\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\ub3c4 \ud06c\uac8c \ub454\ud654\ub410\uc74c. \ub530\ub77c\uc11c \uc5f0\ucd08 \ub098\ud0c0\ub0ac\ub358 \uc0c1\ud488 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uc555\ub825\uc740 \uc62c\ud574 \ub0a8\uc740 \uae30\uac04 \uc810\ucc28 \uc57d\ud574\uc9c0\uace0, \uadfc\uc6d0 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\ub3c4 \ucd94\uac00\ub85c \uc548\uc815\ub420 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ub192\ub2e4\uace0 \uc804\ub9dd\ud588\uc74c.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1756\" data-end=\"1892\">UBS\ub294 \uc55e\uc73c\ub85c\ub3c4 \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \uad00\uc138 \ubc1c\ud45c\uac00 \ub098\uc62c \ub54c\ub9c8\ub2e4 \uae08\uc735\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \ub2e8\uae30 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc740 \ucee4\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubd24\uc74c. \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \uae30\ubcf8 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \uc804\uccb4 \uc2e4\ud6a8\uad00\uc138\uc728\uc774 \ud06c\uac8c \ub192\uc544\uc9c0\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc744 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud558\ub294 \ub9cc\ud07c \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc804\uccb4\uc5d0 \ubbf8\uce58\ub294 \uc601\ud5a5\ub3c4 \uc81c\ud55c\uc801\uc77c \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ud3c9\uac00\ud588\uc74c.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1894\" data-end=\"2131\" data-is-last-node=\"\" data-is-only-node=\"\">\ub300\uc2e0 \uc8fc\uc2dd\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \uad00\uc138\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uae30\uc5c5 \uc2e4\uc801\uc774 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \uac00\uc7a5 \uc911\uc694\ud55c \ubcc0\uc218\ub77c\uace0 \ubd84\uc11d\ud588\uc74c. \ubb3c\uac00 \uc555\ub825\uc774 \uc644\ud654\ub418\uba74 \ucc44\uad8c\uae08\ub9ac\ub3c4 \uc810\uc9c4\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ud558\ub77d\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \uc7a5\uae30 \ud22c\uc790\uc790\ub4e4\uc740 \ub2e8\uae30 \uad00\uc138 \ub274\uc2a4\uc5d0 \uacfc\ub3c4\ud558\uac8c \ubc18\uc751\ud558\uae30\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc790\uc0b0\uc744 \uc5ec\ub7ec \uc9c0\uc5ed\uacfc \uc0b0\uc5c5\uc5d0 \ubd84\uc0b0 \ud22c\uc790\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \uc911\uc694\ud558\ub2e4\uace0 \uc870\uc5b8\ud588\uc74c. \ub2e4\ub9cc \ud2b9\uc815 \uae30\uc5c5\uc774\ub098 \uc0b0\uc5c5\uc740 \uacf5\uae09\ub9dd \uad6c\uc870\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uad00\uc138 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ud06c\uac8c \ubc1b\uc744 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \ub9cc\ud07c \uc5c5\uc885\ubcc4 \uc704\ud5d8\uc740 \uc9c0\uc18d\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc810\uac80\ud560 \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ub367\ubd99\uc600\uc74c.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>| \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504, \u52a0 \uc218\uc785\ud488\uc5d0 50% \uad00\uc138 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