\ubc1c\ud45c<\/a>\ud55c \uc124\ubb38\uc870\uc0ac\uc5d0\uc11c\u00a0\ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \uc7a5\uae30 \uad6d\ucc44\uae08\ub9ac \uc804\ub9dd\uce58\uac00 \ud06c\uac8c \ub192\uc544\uc84c\uc74c. \uc804\ubb38\uac00\ub4e4\uc740 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc138\uac00 \ub454\ud654\ud558\ub354\ub77c\ub3c4 \ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \ub9c9\ub300\ud55c \uad6d\uac00\ubd80\ucc44\uc640 \uc778\uacf5\uc9c0\ub2a5(AI) \ud22c\uc790 \ud655\ub300 \ub4f1\uc774 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc5d0 \ubb36\uc5b4\ub458 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud588\uc74c.<\/p>\n\ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \ub300\ud45c\uc801\uc778 \uc7a5\uae30\uae08\ub9ac \uc9c0\ud45c\uc778 10\ub144 \ub9cc\uae30 \uad6d\ucc44 \uc218\uc775\ub960\uc740 2026\ub144 \ub9d0 5.1%\uc5d0 \uc774\ub97c \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc804\ub9dd\ub410\uc74c. \uc774\ub294 \uc9c0\ub09c 7\uc6d4 \uc870\uc0ac \ub2f9\uc2dc \uc608\uc0c1\uce58\uc778 4.4%\ubcf4\ub2e4 0.7%\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8 \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc784. 2027\ub144 \uc911\ubc18\uacfc \uc5f0\ub9d0 \uc804\ub9dd\uce58\ub3c4 \uac01\uac01 4.96%, 4.78%\ub85c, \uae30\uc874 \uc804\ub9dd\uce58 4.3%, 4.26%\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\uc74c. \uad6d\ucc44\uae08\ub9ac\ub294 \uc8fc\ud0dd\ub2f4\ubcf4\ub300\ucd9c\uacfc \uae30\uc5c5 \ub300\ucd9c\uae08\ub9ac\uc758 \uae30\uc900\uc774 \ub418\ub294 \ub9cc\ud07c, \ub192\uc740 \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \uc7a5\uae30\uac04 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c0\uba74 \uac00\uacc4\uc640 \uae30\uc5c5\uc758 \uc790\uae08 \uc870\ub2ec \ubd80\ub2f4\uc774 \ucee4\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\uc74c.<\/p>\n
\uae08\ub9ac \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc758 \ubc30\uacbd\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uacac\uc870\ud55c \uacbd\uc81c\uc131\uc7a5, \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uc555\ub825, \ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \uc7ac\uc815 \uc545\ud654 \uc6b0\ub824\uac00 \uaf3d\ud614\uc74c. \ubbf8\uad6d \uc5f0\ubc29\uc815\ubd80\uc758 \uad6d\ucc44 \uc774\uc790 \uc9c0\ucd9c\uc740 \uc774\ubbf8 \uad6d\ubc29\ube44\ub97c \ub118\uc5b4\uc120 \uc0c1\ud0dc\uc784. \uad6d\ucc44\uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \uc624\ub974\uba74 \uc815\ubd80\uac00 \ube5a\uc744 \ub0b4\ub294 \ube44\uc6a9\ub3c4 \uc99d\uac00\ud574 \uc7ac\uc815 \ubd80\ub2f4\uc774 \ub354\uc6b1 \ucee4\uc9c0\uac8c \ub428.<\/p>\n
\ub514\uc2dc\uc804 \uc774\ucf54\ub178\ubbf9\uc2a4(Decision Economics)\uc758 \uc568\ub7f0 \uc2dc\ub098\uc774(Allen Sinai) \ub300\ud45c\ub294 \ucc44\uad8c\uc2dc\uc7a5\uacfc \uacbd\uc81c\uc758 \uae30\ucd08 \uc5ec\uac74\uc774 \uadfc\ubcf8\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ub2ec\ub77c\uc84c\ub2e4\uace0 \ud3c9\uac00\ud588\uc74c. \ubbf8\uad6d \uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4(Fed)\uac00 \uc9c0\ub09c\ub2ec 3\ub144 \ub9cc\uc5d0 \ucc98\uc74c \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc778\uc0c1\ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc, \ubb3c\uac00\ub97c \uc7a1\uae30\uc5d0\ub294 \ucd94\uac00 \uc778\uc0c1\uc774 \ud544\uc694\ud558\ub2e4\ub294 \uc124\uba85\uc784. \uadf8\ub294 10\ub144 \ub9cc\uae30 \uad6d\ucc44\uae08\ub9ac\uac00 2027\ub144 6% \uac00\uae4c\uc774 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud558\uace0, 2020\ub144\ub300 \ub9d0\uae4c\uc9c0 5%\ub97c \uc6c3\ub3cc \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \uc804\ub9dd\ud588\uc74c.<\/p>\n
\ud765\ubbf8\ub85c\uc6b4 \uc810\uc740 \uc7a5\uae30\uae08\ub9ac \uc804\ub9dd\uc774 \ub192\uc544\uc84c\ub294\ub370\ub3c4 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc804\ub9dd\uc740 \ud06c\uac8c \ub2ec\ub77c\uc9c0\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc558\ub2e4\ub294 \uc0ac\uc2e4\uc784. \uc804\ubb38\uac00\ub4e4\uc740 \uc774\ub780 \uc804\uc7c1\uc73c\ub85c \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud55c \uad6d\uc81c\uc720\uac00\uac00 \uc810\ucc28 \uc548\uc815\ub420 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud588\uc74c. \ubbf8\uad6d \uae30\uc900\uc720\uac00\ub294 \ubc30\ub7f4\ub2f9 1.85\ub2ec\ub7ec(\uc57d 12\ub9cc3200\uc6d0)\uc5d0\uc11c 2026\ub144 \ub9d0 88\ub2ec\ub7ec(\uc57d 11\ub9cc8100\uc6d0)\ub85c \ud558\ub77d\ud558\uace0, 2027\ub144 7\uc6d4\uc5d0\ub294 $80\ub2ec\ub7ec(\uc57d 10\ub9cc7300\uc6d0) \uc544\ub798\ub85c \ub0b4\ub824\uac08 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc804\ub9dd\ub410\uc74c.<\/p>\n
\uc18c\ube44\uc790\ubb3c\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc740 2026\ub144 12\uc6d4 3.5%\uc5d0\uc11c 2027\ub144 6\uc6d4 2.6%, \uc5f0\ub9d0 2.3%\ub85c \ub454\ud654\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ub410\uc74c. \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \uc911\uc2dc\ud558\ub294 \uac1c\uc778\uc18c\ube44\uc9c0\ucd9c(PCE) \ubb3c\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\ub3c4 2026\ub144 \ub9d0 3.5%\uc5d0\uc11c 2027\ub144 \ub9d0 2.4%\ub85c \ub0ae\uc544\uc9c8 \uc804\ub9dd\uc784.<\/p>\n
\ub178\ub358\ud2b8\ub7ec\uc2a4\ud2b8(Northern Trust)\uc758 \uce7c \ud0dc\ub10c\ubc14\uc6c0(Carl Tannenbaum) \uc218\uc11d\uc774\ucf54\ub178\ubbf8\uc2a4\ud2b8\ub294 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc678\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uad6d\uac00\ubd80\ucc44 \uc99d\uac00\uc640 AI \uc778\ud504\ub77c \ud22c\uc790\uc5d0 \ub530\ub978 \uc790\uae08 \uc218\uc694 \ud655\ub300\uac00 \uad6d\ucc44\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub04c\uc5b4\uc62c\ub9b4 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubd84\uc11d\ud588\uc74c. \uadf8\ub294 10\ub144 \ub9cc\uae30 \uad6d\ucc44\uae08\ub9ac\uac00 2028\ub144\uae4c\uc9c0 5.2% \uc548\ud30e\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud55c \ub4a4 2029\ub144 \ub9d0 5%\ub85c \ub0b4\ub824\uac08 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud588\uc74c. \uc774\ub294 \ubbf8\uad6d \uc758\ud68c\uc608\uc0b0\uad6d(CBO)\uc774 \uc62c\ud574 2\uc6d4 \uc81c\uc2dc\ud55c 2020\ub144\ub300 \ub9d0\uae4c\uc9c0 4.3% \uc774\ud558\ub77c\ub294 \uc804\ub9dd\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc784.<\/p>\n
\uacbd\uc81c\uc131\uc7a5 \uc804\ub9dd\uc740 \uc624\ud788\ub824 \uac1c\uc120\ub410\uc74c. \uc804\ubb38\uac00\ub4e4\uc740 2026\ub144 \ubbf8\uad6d \uacbd\uc81c\uc131\uc7a5\ub960\uc744 \uae30\uc874 2.1%\uc5d0\uc11c 2.4%\ub85c \uc0c1\ud5a5\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \uc774\ud6c4\uc5d0\ub294 2.1~2.2% \uc218\uc900\uc744 \uc608\uc0c1\ud588\uc74c. \uc2e4\uc5c5\ub960\uc740 2029\ub144\uae4c\uc9c0 4.2% \uc548\ud30e\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\uace0, \ud5a5\ud6c4 12\uac1c\uc6d4 \ub0b4 \uacbd\uae30\uce68\uccb4 \ud655\ub960\uc740 24%\ub85c \ud3c9\uac00\ud588\uc74c. \ub2e4\ub9cc \uc77c\ubd80 \uc804\ubb38\uac00\ub294 \uace0\uc784\uae08 \uc0ac\ubb34\uc9c1 \uc77c\uc790\ub9ac\uc758 \ubd80\uc9c4\uc73c\ub85c \ub178\ub3d9\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uc57d\ud654\ud558\uba74 \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\ub85c \ub3cc\uc544\uc124 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\ub3c4 \uc81c\uae30\ud588\uc74c.<\/p>\n
\uc815\uce58\uc801 \ubcc0\uc218\ub3c4 \uc870\uc0ac\ub410\uc74c. \uc911\uac04\uc120\uac70 \uad00\ub828 \uc9c8\ubb38\uc5d0 \uc751\ub2f5\ud55c 52\uba85 \uc911 48%\ub294 \uacf5\ud654\ub2f9\uc774 \uc0c1\u00b7\ud558\uc6d0\uc744 \ubaa8\ub450 \uc720\uc9c0\ud560 \uacbd\uc6b0 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uc704\ud5d8\uc774 \uac00\uc7a5 \ud074 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubd24\uc74c. \ucd94\uac00 \uac10\uc138\uc640 \uc7ac\uc815\uc9c0\ucd9c \ud655\ub300 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \uc774\uc720\ub85c \uc81c\uc2dc\ub410\uc74c. \ud55c\ud3b8 \uc9c0\ub09c 5\uc6d4 \ucde8\uc784\ud55c \ucf00\ube48 \uc6cc\uc2dc(Kevin Warsh) \uc5f0\uc900 \uc758\uc7a5\uc758 \uc5c5\ubb34 \ud3c9\uac00\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc751\ub2f5\uc790\uc758 36%\uac00 \ud310\ub2e8\ud558\uae30 \uc774\ub974\ub2e4\uace0 \ub2f5\ud588\uc73c\uba70, 31%\ub294 B\ub4f1\uae09, 20%\ub294 C\ub4f1\uae09, 9%\ub294 A\ub4f1\uae09\uc744 \ubd80\uc5ec\ud588\uc74c.<\/p>\n
(1\ubbf8\uad6d\ub2ec\ub7ec=1342\uc6d0)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
| \uacbd\uc81c\uc804\ubb38\uac00 71\uba85 \uc870\uc0ac \uacb0\uacfc \ub2e4\uc218\uac00 “\uace0\uae08\ub9ac \uc7a5\uae30\ud654 \ubd88\uac00\ud53c” | \ub0b4\ub144 \uc911\ubc18\uc5d0 10\ub144\ubb3c \uad6d\ucc44\uae08\ub9ac 4.96%\u00b7\uc5f0\ub9d0 4.78% \uc804\ub9dd | \u7f8e \uad6d\ucc44 \uc774\uc790 \uc9c0\ucd9c, \uad6d\ubc29\ube44 \uc774\ubbf8 \ucd94\uc6d4\u2026 \uc7a5\uae30\uae08\ub9ac \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc5d0 \uc7ac\uc815 \ubd80\ub2f4 \uac00\uc911 \ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \uace0\uae08\ub9ac \ud658\uacbd\uc774 \uc77c\uc2dc\uc801\uc778 \ud604\uc0c1\uc5d0 \uadf8\uce58\uc9c0 \uc54a\uace0 2020\ub144\ub300 \ub9d0\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc804\ub9dd\uc774 \ub098\uc654\uc74c. \uc6d4\uc2a4\ud2b8\ub9ac\ud2b8\uc800\ub110\uc774 10\uc6d4 2~7\uc77c \uacbd\uc81c\uc804\ubb38\uac00 71\uba85\uc744 \ub300\uc0c1\uc73c\ub85c \uc2e4\uc2dc\ud574 \uc9c0\ub09c 11\uc77c(\ud604\uc9c0\uc2dc\uac01) \ubc1c\ud45c\ud55c \uc124\ubb38\uc870\uc0ac\uc5d0\uc11c\u00a0\ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":98,"featured_media":21433,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,612],"tags":[1217,6447,1799,672,58],"class_list":{"0":"post-73353","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-sanction","8":"category-usa","9":"tag-1217","10":"tag-6447","11":"tag-1799","12":"tag-672","13":"tag-58"},"yoast_head":"\n
\u7f8e \uacbd\uc81c\uc804\ubb38\uac00\ub4e4 \u201c\uace0\uae08\ub9ac \uc77c\uc2dc\uc801 \ud604\uc0c1 \uc544\ub0d0\u2026 2030\ub144\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c8 \uc218\ub3c4\u201d SanctionLab<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"\ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \uace0\uae08\ub9ac \ud658\uacbd\uc774 \uc77c\uc2dc\uc801\uc778 \ud604\uc0c1\uc5d0 \uadf8\uce58\uc9c0 \uc54a\uace0 2020\ub144\ub300 \ub9d0\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc804\ub9dd\uc774 \ub098\uc654\uc74c. \uc6d4\uc2a4\ud2b8\ub9ac\ud2b8\uc800\ub110\uc774 10\uc6d4 2~7\uc77c \uacbd\uc81c\uc804\ubb38\uac00 71\uba85\uc744 \ub300\uc0c1\uc73c\ub85c \uc2e4\uc2dc\ud574 \uc9c0\ub09c 11\uc77c(\ud604\uc9c0\uc2dc\uac01) \ubc1c\ud45c\ud55c \uc124\ubb38\uc870\uc0ac\uc5d0\uc11c\u00a0\ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \uc7a5\uae30 \uad6d\ucc44\uae08\ub9ac...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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