{"id":74105,"date":"2026-10-27T01:30:14","date_gmt":"2026-10-26T16:30:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sanctionlab.com\/?p=74105"},"modified":"2026-10-27T08:43:17","modified_gmt":"2026-10-26T23:43:17","slug":"csis-%eb%af%bc%ec%a3%bc%eb%8b%b9-%ec%a4%91%ea%b0%84%ec%84%a0%ea%b1%b0-%ec%9d%b4%ea%b2%a8%eb%8f%84-%ed%8a%b8%eb%9f%bc%ed%94%84-%ea%b4%80%ec%84%b8-%eb%b0%94%eb%a1%9c-%eb%92%a4%ec%a7%91%ea%b8%b0","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sanctionlab.com\/?p=74105","title":{"rendered":"CSIS &#8220;\ubbfc\uc8fc\ub2f9, \uc911\uac04\uc120\uac70 \uc774\uaca8\ub3c4 \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \uad00\uc138 \ubc14\ub85c \ub4a4\uc9d1\uae30\ub294 \uc5b4\ub824\uc6b8 \ub4ef&#8221;"},"content":{"rendered":"<h3>| \u6c11, \uc911\uac04\uc120\uac70 \uc2b9\ub9ac \uc2dc\u00a0 \uce90\ub098\ub2e4 \uad00\uc138 \ucca0\ud3d0\u00b7\ubb34\uc5ed\ubc95 \uac1c\uc815 \ucd94\uc9c4 \uc804\ub9dd<br \/>\n| \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \uac70\ubd80\uad8c \ubb34\ub825\ud654\ud560 \uc218\uc900\uc758 \uc911\uac04\uc120\uac70 \uc2b9\ub9ac\ub294 \uc5b4\ub824\uc6b8 \ub4ef<br \/>\n| \uad00\uc138 \ud2b9\ud61c\u00b7\uc815\uce58\uc790\uae08 \uad00\ub828 \uccad\ubb38\ud68c\u00b7\uc790\ub8cc \uc81c\ucd9c \uc694\uad6c\ub85c \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \uc555\ubc15\ud560 \ub4ef<\/h3>\n<p>\uc624\ub294 11\uc6d4 3\uc77c \uc911\uac04\uc120\uac70\uc5d0\uc11c \ubbf8\uad6d \ubbfc\uc8fc\ub2f9\uc774 \uc0c1\uc6d0\uc774\ub098 \ud558\uc6d0, \ub610\ub294 \uc591\uc6d0\uc744 \uc7a5\uc545\ud560 \uacbd\uc6b0 \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \ud589\uc815\ubd80\uc758 \uad00\uc138\u00b7\ud1b5\uc0c1\uc815\ucc45\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc758\ud68c \ucc28\uc6d0\uc758 \uacac\uc81c\uac00 \uac15\ud654\ub420 \uc804\ub9dd\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ubbf8\uad6d \uc2f1\ud06c\ud0f1\ud06c \uc804\ub7b5\uad6d\uc81c\ubb38\uc81c\uc5f0\uad6c\uc18c(CSIS)\uc758 \uc70c\ub9ac\uc5c4 \ub77c\uc778\uc2dc(William A. Reinsch) \uc120\uc784\uace0\ubb38\uc774 20\uc77c(\ud604\uc9c0\uc2dc\uac01) <a href=\"https:\/\/www.csis.org\/analysis\/what-happens-after-election\">\ubd84\uc11d<\/a>\ud588\uc74c.<\/p>\n<p>\uadf8\ub294 \ubbfc\uc8fc\ub2f9\uc774 \uc0c1\uc6d0\uc774\ub098 \ud558\uc6d0 \uc911 \ud55c \uacf3 \uc774\uc0c1\uc744 \uc7a5\uc545\ud560 \uacbd\uc6b0 \uad00\uc138 \ucca0\ud3d0\uc640 \ubb34\uc5ed\ubc95 \uac1c\uc815, \uad00\uc138 \uba74\uc81c \ud2b9\ud61c \uc870\uc0ac \ub4f1\uc744 \ucd94\uc9c4\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud588\uc74c. \ub2e4\ub9cc \ub300\ud1b5\ub839\uc758 \uac70\ubd80\uad8c\uc744 \ubb34\ub825\ud654\ud560 \uc758\uc11d\uc744 \ud655\ubcf4\ud558\uae30 \uc5b4\ub824\uc6cc \uc2e4\uc81c \ubc95\ub960 \uac1c\uc815\ubcf4\ub2e4\ub294 \uccad\ubb38\ud68c\uc640 \uc870\uc0ac \ub4f1\uc744 \ud1b5\ud55c \uc555\ubc15\uc5d0 \ubb34\uac8c\uac00 \uc2e4\ub9b4 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubd84\uc11d\ud588\uc74c.<\/p>\n<p>\ub77c\uc778\uc2dc \uace0\ubb38\uc740 \ubbfc\uc8fc\ub2f9\uc774 \uc758\ud68c \uc77c\ubd80 \ub610\ub294 \uc804\uccb4\ub97c \uc7a5\uc545\ud558\ub354\ub77c\ub3c4 \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \ub300\ud1b5\ub839\uc758 \ud1b5\uc0c1\uc815\ucc45\uc744 \uc989\uac01 \ubc14\uafb8\uae30\ub294 \uc5b4\ub835\ub2e4\uace0 \uc804\ub9dd\ud588\uc74c. \ubc95\uc548\uc774 \uc758\ud68c\ub97c \ud1b5\uacfc\ud558\ub354\ub77c\ub3c4 \ub300\ud1b5\ub839\uc774 \uac70\ubd80\uad8c\uc744 \ud589\uc0ac\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc784. \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \uc758\ud68c\ub294 \uc608\uc0b0 \ubc30\uc815\uacfc \uc0ad\uac10, \uccad\ubb38\ud68c \uac1c\ucd5c, \uc790\ub8cc \uc81c\ucd9c \uc694\uad6c, \ud589\uc815\ubd80 \uc870\uc0ac \ub4f1\uc744 \ud1b5\ud574 \uc815\ucc45 \uc9d1\ud589\uc744 \uacac\uc81c\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc74c. \ud2b9\ud788 \uad00\uc138 \uba74\uc81c \uacfc\uc815\uc5d0\uc11c \uc815\uce58\uc790\uae08 \uae30\ubd80\ub098 \ub2e4\ub978 \ub300\uac00\ub97c \uc870\uac74\uc73c\ub85c \ud2b9\ud61c\uac00 \uc81c\uacf5\ub410\ub294\uc9c0 \uc870\uc0ac\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \uc788\uc74c.<\/p>\n<p>\ubbfc\uc8fc\ub2f9\uc774 \uc6b0\uc120 \ucd94\uc9c4\ud560 \uacfc\uc81c\ub294 \ubd80\ub2f9\ud558\ub2e4\uace0 \ud310\ub2e8\ud558\ub294 \uad00\uc138\uc758 \ucca0\ud3d0\uc784. \uce90\ub098\ub2e4\uc0b0 \uc81c\ud488\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uad00\uc138\uac00 \ub300\ud45c\uc801\uc778 \ub300\uc0c1\uc73c\ub85c \uac70\ub860\ub428. \ub300\ud1b5\ub839\uc774 \uad00\uc138 \ubd80\uacfc \uad8c\ud55c\uc744 \ub0a8\uc6a9\ud588\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf4\ub294 1974\ub144 \ubb34\uc5ed\ubc95 122\uc870\uc640 1930\ub144 \uad00\uc138\ubc95 338\uc870\uc758 \ud3d0\uc9c0\ub3c4 \ucd94\uc9c4\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ub428. 122\uc870\uc5d0 \ub530\ub978 \uad00\uc138\ub294 \uc774\ubbf8 \ud6a8\ub825\uc774 \ub9cc\ub8cc\ub410\uc73c\uba70 \ud558\uae09\uc2ec \ubc95\uc6d0\uc5d0\uc11c \ubb34\ud6a8 \ud310\ub2e8\uc744 \ubc1b\uc558\uace0, 338\uc870\ub97c \ub458\ub7ec\uc2fc \uc18c\uc1a1\ub3c4 \uc608\uc0c1\ub428.<\/p>\n<p>\uad6d\uac00\uc548\ubcf4\ub97c \uc774\uc720\ub85c \uc218\uc785\uc744 \uc81c\ud55c\ud560 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\uc18c\ube44\uc790\uc5d0\uac8c \ub3cc\uc544\uac00\ub3c4\ub85d \ud558\ub294 \ubc29\uc548\ub3c4 \uac80\ud1a0\ud560 \uc804\ub9dd\uc784. \uc218\uc785\uc5c5\uccb4\uac00 \uad00\uc138\ub97c \ub0a9\ubd80\ud588\ub354\ub77c\ub3c4 \uc81c\ud488 \uac00\uaca9 \uc778\uc0c1\uc744 \ud1b5\ud574 \uc18c\ube44\uc790\uc5d0\uac8c \ubd80\ub2f4\uc774 \uc804\uac00\ub410\uc744 \uc218 \uc788\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc784. \uc544\uc6b8\ub7ec \uad00\uc138 \uba74\uc81c \ud61c\ud0dd\uc774 \uc815\uce58\uc790\uae08 \uae30\ubd80 \ub4f1\uacfc \uc5f0\uacc4\ub410\ub294\uc9c0\ub3c4 \uc870\uc0ac\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ub428.<\/p>\n<p>\uc758\ud68c\uc758 \ud1b5\uc0c1\uc815\ucc45 \uacb0\uc815\uad8c\uc744 \ud68c\ubcf5\ud558\ub824\ub294 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc784\ub3c4 \uc608\uc0c1\ub428. \ubbfc\uc8fc\ub2f9\uc740 \ubbf8\uad6d \ubc95\ub960 \uac1c\uc815\uc774 \ud544\uc694\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc740 \ubb34\uc5ed\ud611\uc815\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc758\ud68c \uc2b9\uc778\uc744 \ubc1b\ub3c4\ub85d \ud558\uace0, \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \ubb34\uc5ed\ud611\uc0c1 \uac1c\uc2dc\uc640 \uc2e0\uaddc \uad00\uc138 \ubd80\uacfc\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uc758\ud68c \ub3d9\uc758\ub97c \uc758\ubb34\ud654\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\uc548\uc744 \ucd94\uc9c4\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc74c. \uc774\ub294 \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \ub300\ud1b5\ub839 \uc7ac\uc784 \uae30\uac04 \ud655\ub300\ub41c \ud589\uc815\ubd80\uc758 \ud1b5\uc0c1 \uad8c\ud55c\uc744 \uc81c\ud55c\ud558\ub824\ub294 \uc2dc\ub3c4\uc784.<\/p>\n<p>\ub2e4\ub9cc \ubbfc\uc8fc\ub2f9 \ub0b4\ubd80\uc5d0\uc11c\ub3c4 \ubcf4\ud638\ubb34\uc5ed\uc744 \uc911\uc2dc\ud558\ub294 \uc9c4\uc601\uacfc \uc790\uc720\ubb34\uc5ed\uc758 \uc774\uc810\uc744 \uc778\uc815\ud558\ub294 \uc911\ub3c4\ud30c \uc0ac\uc774\uc5d0 \uc758\uacac \ucc28\uc774\uac00 \uc788\uc74c. \ud604\uc7ac\ub294 \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \uad00\uc138\uc758 \uc0c1\ub2f9\uc218\uac00 \uc798\ubabb\ub410\uace0, \uad00\uc138 \ubd80\uacfc \uacfc\uc815\uc5d0\uc11c \ubc95\uc801 \uc808\ucc28\uc640 \uc758\ud68c \uad8c\ud55c\uc774 \ubb34\uc2dc\ub410\ub2e4\ub294 \ube44\ud310\uc5d0 \ub300\uccb4\ub85c \uacf5\uac10\ud558\ub294 \uc218\uc900\uc784.<\/p>\n<p>\ub77c\uc778\uc2dc \uace0\ubb38\uc740 \ubbfc\uc8fc\ub2f9\uc758 \uc758\ud68c \uc7a5\uc545\uc774 \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \ud589\uc815\ubd80\ub97c \ubc29\uc5b4\uc801\uc778 \uc785\uc7a5\uc73c\ub85c \ubab0\uc544\ub123\uace0 \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \uc815\ucc45\uc744 \ucd94\uc9c4\ud560 \uc5ec\ub825\uc744 \uc904\uc77c \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ud3c9\uac00\ud588\uc74c. \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \uae30\uc874 \uc815\ucc45\uc744 \ube44\ud310\ud558\uace0 \uc800\uc9c0\ud558\ub294 \uac83\ub9cc\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 \ub3c5\uc790\uc801\uc778 \ud1b5\uc0c1\uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \ub420 \uc218 \uc5c6\ub2e4\uace0 \uc9c0\uc801\ud588\uc74c. \uadf8\ub7ec\ubbc0\ub85c \uc624\ub294 2028\ub144 \ub300\ud1b5\ub839\uc120\uac70\uc5d0\uc11c \uc2b9\ub9ac\ud558\ub824\uba74 \ubbfc\uc8fc\ub2f9\uc774 \uad00\uc138\uc640 \ubb34\uc5ed\ud611\uc815, \uad6d\uc81c\ubb34\uc5ed \uc9c8\uc11c\uc5d0 \uad00\ud55c \uad6c\uccb4\uc801\uc778 \ub300\uc548\uc744 \uc81c\uc2dc\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4\uace0 \uac15\uc870\ud588\uc74c.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>| \u6c11, \uc911\uac04\uc120\uac70 \uc2b9\ub9ac \uc2dc\u00a0 \uce90\ub098\ub2e4 \uad00\uc138 \ucca0\ud3d0\u00b7\ubb34\uc5ed\ubc95 \uac1c\uc815 \ucd94\uc9c4 \uc804\ub9dd | \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \uac70\ubd80\uad8c \ubb34\ub825\ud654\ud560 \uc218\uc900\uc758 \uc911\uac04\uc120\uac70 \uc2b9\ub9ac\ub294 \uc5b4\ub824\uc6b8 \ub4ef | \uad00\uc138 \ud2b9\ud61c\u00b7\uc815\uce58\uc790\uae08 \uad00\ub828 \uccad\ubb38\ud68c\u00b7\uc790\ub8cc \uc81c\ucd9c \uc694\uad6c\ub85c \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \uc555\ubc15\ud560 \ub4ef \uc624\ub294 11\uc6d4 3\uc77c \uc911\uac04\uc120\uac70\uc5d0\uc11c \ubbf8\uad6d \ubbfc\uc8fc\ub2f9\uc774 \uc0c1\uc6d0\uc774\ub098 \ud558\uc6d0, \ub610\ub294 \uc591\uc6d0\uc744 \uc7a5\uc545\ud560 \uacbd\uc6b0 \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \ud589\uc815\ubd80\uc758 \uad00\uc138\u00b7\ud1b5\uc0c1\uc815\ucc45\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc758\ud68c \ucc28\uc6d0\uc758 \uacac\uc81c\uac00 \uac15\ud654\ub420 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